HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt3 October 2026, Saturday · 10:00 TRT (UTC+3)
Fund probe arrests reach 85 as seized assets head to the TMSF
All 20 suspects referred to a judge in Istanbul on 3 October with a request for arrest were remanded in custody, bringing the number held in the fund probe to 85. The investigation covers 217 suspects, 131 funds and 455,758 investors.
According to Gazete Oksijen, the investigation is being run by the terrorist financing and money laundering bureau of the Istanbul Chief Public Prosecutor's Office. At its centre are 131 funds belonging to 7 portfolio management companies whose liquidation the Capital Markets Board (SPK) ordered on 17 September. The companies are Tera, Pusula, Hedef, Atlas, A1, Pardus and Bulls. The number in custody stood at 51 on 26 September; 34 were added in a week.
Justice Minister Akın Gürlek said in his announcement of the fifth wave on 30 September that detention orders had been issued for 34 suspects and 88 people had been placed under judicial control. According to Hürriyet, Gürlek said assets found to have been obtained through crime would be moved into a fund set up under the TMSF. According to Kapsam Haber, the assets include villas, luxury cars and land, and the fund will be used to compensate investors who suffered losses.
According to Yeni Ankara, those arrested on 3 October included executives of a software company holding stakes in Pusula funds. According to Kapsam Haber, President Erdoğan listed two priorities: protecting the economy from damage and making unjust gains answer to the courts. The same source said access to at least 1,270 X accounts was restricted in September; how many were linked to the investigation could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The rise in the number held from 51 to 85 in a week shows Ankara's determination to manage the fund crisis through criminal proceedings and the TMSF. Channelling seized assets to investors through a TMSF fund strengthens expectations of payment for 455,758 investors. The timing and rate of payment have not yet been announced.
Likely effects
- Investor confidencePositive1–6 months
Moving assets into a TMSF fund signals that part of the losses suffered by investors in the 131 funds may be recovered.
- Turkish capital marketsNegative1–6 months
The probe's spread to 217 suspects and to software companies may keep regulatory risk for the portfolio management sector priced in for longer.
- Political agendaNegativeWeeks
The rise to 85 in custody carries the crisis from the capital market into politics and keeps the opposition's demand for accountability alive.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Probe widens, compensation lags55%
New waves push the number in custody higher, while the TMSF fund's payment timetable stays unclear for weeks.
Watch: The prosecutor's sixth-wave announcement and the TMSF fund regulation
- 2Swift compensation timetable30%
The TMSF fund is set up quickly and a date for the first payment to investors is announced.
Watch: An official TMSF or SPK announcement giving the payment rate and date
- 3Crisis spills into banking15%
More institutions are transferred to the TMSF and the probe extends beyond the 3 investment banks.
Watch: The BDDK transferring management of a further institution to the TMSF
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Total in custody (3 October)▼ 85
- Number of suspects▼ 217
- Investors affected▼ 455,758
Sources
- Gazete Oksijen — 20 more remanded in fund probe, bringing number in custody to 85
- Yeni Ankara — Fund probe: those arrested and released on 3 October
- Kapsam Haber — Number in custody in fund probe rises to 85
- Hürriyet — Fifth wave in fund probe, Minister Gürlek: assets obtained through crime will be moved to a TMSF fund