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TALAYINSIGHT
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MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints22 September 2026, Tuesday

India's Russian crude purchases fell to 1.9 million barrels a day in September; cuts to November loadings on the table after sanctions law

According to Kpler data, India's crude imports from Russia fell in September to about 1.9 million barrels a day, the lowest since April. After a US law authorising tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian energy, Indian refiners are seeking alternative cargoes for November delivery; the Kremlin said the law would damage relations.

NOVOROSSIYSK

According to a Bloomberg report of 22 September published on SupplyChainBrain, India's crude imports from Russia are heading for an average of about 1.9 million barrels a day in September; that is more than 35% of total imports, but the lowest level since April. Russia had supplied more than half of India's imports in recent months. According to sources close to the talks, the largest refiners have begun looking for alternative cargoes in recent days, and the share of Russian crude could fall to a 20-30% range in the near term. Negotiations for November-delivery Russian cargoes usually begin at the end of September.

The economic side of the constraint is harsh. According to the same report, Urals delivered to India was about $133 a barrel last weekend, with Middle Eastern grades such as Oman and Murban a few dollars above that; a new Rajasthan refinery and expansions are taking India's demand to a record 5.4 million barrels a day. According to BusinessToday, the law gives the Trump administration authority to impose tariffs of up to 100% on large buyers of Russian energy within 30 days; New Delhi argues that its decisions rest on the need for affordable energy for a population of 1.4 billion.

Moscow's reaction is political. According to The Moscow Times, Trump signed the law on Friday 18 September; Kremlin spokesman Peskov said the document would not contribute to reviving bilateral relations and would make progress towards a settlement in Ukraine harder. Indian Commerce Minister Goyal said they were studying the tariff details, while China's Ministry of Commerce said it reserved the right to take all necessary measures. According to a 22 September Newsquawk report citing market sources, Russia's exports from the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk rose 50% month on month in September to 650,000 barrels a day; this figure could not be officially verified.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The real effect of the sanctions law will be seen not on the day of signing but at the negotiating table for November cargoes. India cutting the Russian share from above 35% to 20-30% would open a gap of hundreds of thousands of barrels a day at Russia's largest seaborne buyer; but Middle Eastern grades costing more than Urals and the closure of Hormuz make this shift harder. The most likely outcome is a limited and gradual reduction.

Likely effects

  • Russian oil revenuesNegative1–6 months

    A gradual cut by its largest seaborne buyer forces Russia to choose between deeper discounts and turning more towards China.

  • India's energy billNegative1–6 months

    Middle Eastern grades replacing Russian cargoes costing a few dollars more raises India's import bill and the pressure on the rupee.

  • Türkiye's positionNegative1–6 months

    The tariff authority targeting large buyers of Russian energy means Türkiye, which imports Russian crude and products, also needs to monitor the implementation details.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Gradual reduction55%

    Indian refiners reduce Russian purchases in November but do not cut them off entirely; the share falls to a 20-30% range.

    Watch: Kpler's November-delivery arrival data for India and refiner statements

  2. 2
    Purchases continue, tariff deferred30%

    Washington lets the 30-day period pass without applying tariffs, and India keeps purchases at September levels.

    Watch: The White House's first tariff decision or exemption announcement under the law

  3. 3
    Tariff applied15%

    The US imposes additional tariffs on Indian goods, and refiners largely halt Russian cargoes.

    Watch: A US Trade Representative tariff notice targeting India

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • India's Russian crude purchases▼ 1.9 mn b/d
  • Tariff ceiling in the law▼ 100%
  • Novorossiysk exports (claimed)▲ 650k b/d

Sources

  1. SupplyChainBrain (Bloomberg) — India's oil buyers may cut Russian cargoes in wake of US threats
  2. BusinessToday — Will India cut down on Russian crude purchases due to US tariffs? Here's what we know
  3. The Moscow Times — New US sanctions will harm Ukraine peace talks and bilateral ties, Kremlin says
  4. Newsquawk — Russia's oil exports from Novorossiysk reportedly surged to 650k bpd in September