MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence23 October 2026, Friday
First R4+E3 meeting in Istanbul ends with pledge to meet regularly
Foreign Minister Fidan brought the R4 and the E3 together for the first time in Istanbul on 23 October; with Italy also attending, eight countries were at the table. Ministers declared freedom of navigation in Hormuz, the Red Sea and the Black Sea a shared goal and agreed to meet regularly.
The R4 was formed this year. It brings Egypt together with Saudi Arabia, Türkiye and Pakistan, which signed a mutual defence pact in August. The E3 is the format through which Britain, France and Germany have coordinated diplomacy on Iran's nuclear programme for more than 20 years. According to The National, Fidan warned that a new attack on Iran could widen the regional war. He said the Strait of Hormuz must reopen and attacks on Saudi Arabia must stop.
French Foreign Minister Barrot said navigation violations in the Black Sea and the Gulf have very concrete consequences for Europe, and announced that the eight countries had agreed to meet regularly. Asharq Al-Awsat reports that Britain deployed Typhoon fighters the same week to protect Saudi airspace from Houthi attacks. No date was announced for the next meeting.
The Black Sea item is a direct risk for Türkiye. Asharq Al-Awsat says Ankara sent Russia and Ukraine a proposal last month to halt attacks on merchant ships. It went unanswered, and attacks have increased off Romania and Bulgaria. NATO announced on 20 October that it had deployed additional aircraft, drones and radar systems to the Black Sea. Trump, for his part, had said he would not strike Iran again before the 3 November midterm elections.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The meeting produced no concrete mechanism, but it gave Türkiye a founding role at the table where the Gulf defence pact meets Europe's Iran diplomacy. The shared goal is freedom of navigation; listing the Black Sea alongside Hormuz and the Red Sea shows Ankara is setting the agenda. Its impact hinges on the US decision on Iran after 3 November.
Likely effects
- Turkish foreign policyPositive1–6 months
The R4+E3 format gives Ankara a mediating role between the Gulf and Europe; the decision to meet regularly institutionalises it.
- Black Sea tradeNegativeWeeks
Attacks on Turkish ships and Ankara's unanswered proposal suggest the Black Sea will be the format's first test.
- Gulf energy supplyUncertainWeeks
While Houthi attacks and the Hormuz constraint persist, the eight countries' appeal has no direct effect on supply.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Regular but ineffective format55%
The group meets again and issues joint statements, but navigation security on the water does not change.
Watch: Announcement of the date and venue of the second R4+E3 meeting
- 2Concrete maritime security step25%
The format turns into a proposal for joint surveillance or escorts in the Black Sea or the Red Sea.
Watch: Announcement of a joint maritime security initiative in the name of R4+E3
- 3New strike on Iran splits the group20%
If the US strikes Iran after 3 November, members are pulled into different camps.
Watch: US announcement of a military operation against Iran after the 3 November midterms
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Countries attending▲ 8
- Date of next meeting▼ not announced