MediumIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt5 October 2026, Monday
CBRT gross reserves fall for a sixth straight week
Gross reserves fell by about 4 billion dollars to 167.2 billion in the week to 2 October, according to Matriks calculations based on CBRT data. The decline has now run for six weeks, with losses since 21 August reaching 21.2 billion dollars.
According to Dünya on 5 October, gross reserves slipped from 171.2 billion dollars in the week to 25 September to 167.2 billion. Reserves had peaked at 188.4 billion on 21 August, the high point of the latest recovery. The all-time high was 218.2 billion on 30 January 2026, and the year's low was 149.2 billion on 26 June. Today's level is about 51 billion dollars below the record. The figures are not yet official; the CBRT will publish final data on Thursday 8 October at 14:30 TRT (UTC+3).
The drain shows the price of currency stability. A Commerzbank analyst, cited by Tradingpedia on 6 October, wrote that the lira is being supported by central bank and state bank intervention. September inflation, released the same day, fell to 29.73% and strengthened expectations of a rate cut. The two developments pull in different directions. If a cut lowers the return on lira assets, demand for foreign currency could rise and the need for intervention could grow.
A calculation cited by Politikam also shows the decline resumed at the end of August after a recovery in July and August. The sources do not break down how much of the loss came from FX sales and how much from gold prices and valuation effects; this split could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Six uninterrupted weeks of losses show the CBRT is holding the lira steady by spending reserves. The bank wants to cut rates on 22 October on the back of falling inflation, but the reserve drain narrows that room. The most likely path is a continued but slowing decline. If the final data on 8 October confirms the calculation, the size of the cut will be open to debate.
Likely effects
- Exchange rate policyNegative1–6 months
As the reserve buffer thins, holding the lira steady through intervention gets costlier; if the drain continues, allowing faster depreciation could come onto the agenda.
- Room for a rate cutNegativeWeeks
Cutting rates while reserves are still falling risks stoking demand for foreign currency, which could shrink the CBRT's move on 22 October.
- Credit risk perceptionNegative1–6 months
Gross reserves sit about 51 billion dollars below their peak. A deeper decline would put pressure on external borrowing costs and the CDS premium.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Slowing drain50%
Final data confirms the calculation, and losses slow in the following weeks.
Watch: CBRT weekly reserve data on 8 October at 14:30
- 2Accelerating losses35%
Expectations of a rate cut lift demand for foreign currency, and weekly reserve losses speed up again.
Watch: Weekly gross reserves and domestic FX deposits through October
- 3Recovery15%
Foreign inflows and confidence in disinflation rebuild reserves.
Watch: Weekly foreign purchases of government bonds turning positive
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Gross reserves (week to 2 October)▼ $167.2bn
- Weekly change▼ ≈−$4bn
- Loss since 21 August▼ $21.2bn