III Kinetic Conflicts & Defence Middle East and North Africa

Expansion and exposure: is Houthi control of the Bab el-Mandeb coast a tactical gain or a strategic trap?

Institution: Al Jazeera Centre for Studies (AJCS)
Author: Institutional publication
Country · language: Qatar · Arabic
Affiliation: Al Jazeera Media Network centre

Summary

According to the English summary of the Arabic original, after taking the port of Mocha on 10 September the Houthis seized Mayun (Perim) island, Dhubab, the Hanish islands and 6 districts in Taiz and Hodeidah the following day, bringing a coastal strip of about 5,400 square kilometres under their control. The operation began on 3 September with diversionary attacks on government forces heading towards the capital; after government forces took Hays on 5 September, the Houthis advanced south along the coast. The strait carries about 8 per cent of global oil trade and 15 per cent of total trade.

According to the centre, the gain gives the Houthis bargaining leverage against Saudi Arabia and the recognised government, and gives Iran the ability to exert influence over a second chokepoint alongside Hormuz. But a force that relies on concealment and mobility in mountainous terrain is forced to defend fixed positions on the flat and open Tihama coast; the supply line from Hodeidah via Mocha to Mayun is about 300 kilometres long, and there is no serious navy. As a precedent, the brief recalls that a UAE-backed operation drove the Houthis out of Mocha in 2017. Four scenarios are listed: consolidation as the most likely, attrition, recapture and a comprehensive Saudi–Iranian settlement.

Blind spot

What the West misses: while Western analyses read the Houthis as a threat firing missiles at ships, they overlook the fact that coastal control erases the Houthis' traditional advantage in mountain warfare and turns them into fixed, targetable assets. The weakness of this reading: even granting the fragmented leadership of government forces and the absence of US air support, the possibility of recapture is not tied to a concrete timeline.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The centre's reading sees the coastal advance less as lasting control over the strait than as a gain that is costly to defend. The 300-kilometre exposed supply line and the lack of a navy are real weaknesses; but as Riyadh and Washington focus on other priorities, consolidation is the most likely path. With Hormuz restrictions continuing, this new pressure on Bab el-Mandeb weakens the Red Sea route's standing as a safe alternative.

Likely effects

Maritime trade and freightNegativeWeeks
The Houthi takeover of the eastern shore of a strait carrying about 8 per cent of global oil trade and 15 per cent of total trade keeps the risk premium and insurance costs high on the Red Sea route.
Saudi export alternativeNegative1–6 months
Under Hormuz restrictions, Saudi Arabia's export and Asian import route via the Red Sea comes under direct pressure; this weakens Riyadh's hand in negotiations with the Houthis.
Türkiye and the Suez routeNegative1–6 months
Additional risk on the Suez–Red Sea route could raise freight and delivery-time costs in Türkiye's maritime trade with Asia; Red Sea-dependent alternatives for energy imports are narrowing.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Consolidation55%
The Houthis fortify the coastal corridor; with Saudi Arabia and the US focused on other priorities, no serious counter-offensive comes.
Watch: Reports of Houthi fortification and supply activity on the Mocha–Dhubab line; Red Sea transit counts
2
Attrition25%
The Houthis hold the coast but the military and economic cost rises; the force either expands or reverts to its old strategy based on missiles and drones.
Watch: Attacks on Mayun island's supply line and renewed fighting on the Taiz front
3
Recapture15%
The coast is retaken with a unified government command, consensus among regional backers and external air and naval support; the strait nonetheless remains under missile and drone threat.
Watch: A joint operation decision by regional backers and a change in US air support policy
4
Comprehensive settlement5%
A US-backed Saudi–Iranian agreement produces a unified authority in Yemen and an army capable of securing the coast.
Watch: A direct Saudi–Iranian negotiating round and announcement of a US-backed framework for Yemen

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: studies.aljazeera.net · 15 September 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.