I Geo-Economics & Chokepoints South Asia

BRICS 2026: the geopolitics of consensus, the New Delhi Declaration and the implementation gap

Institution: Delhi Policy Group (DPG)
Author: Ruchira Kamboj
Country · language: India · English
Affiliation: Independent foundation (New Delhi)

Summary

Ambassador Kamboj, a senior fellow at DPG, assesses the 18th BRICS Summit held in New Delhi on 12–13 September: India held the chair for the fourth time, and for the first time since enlargement; more than 400 meetings were held in 30 cities over the year, 32 delegations attended the summit and Modi held 15 bilateral meetings in three days. Although the foreign ministers' meeting had failed to produce a joint text, the New Delhi Declaration was adopted by consensus. The declaration addresses West Asia by naming Israel, Gaza, Palestine and Lebanon, but does not mention Ukraine; it condemns the 22 April 2025 attack in Jammu and Kashmir but does not name Pakistan, whereas the 2017 Xiamen Declaration named organisations.

According to the author, India's balancing act was to keep BRICS alive without turning it into an ideological camp: yes to the use of local currencies, no to a common currency or a direct challenge to the dollar. Concrete progress came on customs (the voluntary 2026 AEO Action Plan, an annual joint customs operation), the 2026–2030 global value chain action plan and a logistics framework; however, there is no dedicated financing instrument for this agenda, and no amount was announced for the Startup Innovation Fund. The real risk is not paralysis but dispersion: the Continuity and Implementation Mechanism under the Troika that Modi proposed did not make it into the declaration. It has been shown that the 11 members can reach consensus; the hard test is implementation.

Blind spot

What the West misses: reading BRICS as an anti-dollar bloc or a China–Russia tool misses that India's chair deliberately steered it towards technical cooperation on customs, logistics and value chains, keeping a common currency out. The weakness of this reading: it is a former diplomat recounting Indian diplomatic success, and the cost of selective language on West Asia versus Ukraine goes undiscussed.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The New Delhi Declaration shows that an enlarged BRICS can reach consensus on the lowest common denominator, but that this consensus is concentrated largely in technical cooperation. Without a financing instrument and a follow-up mechanism, customs and value chain initiatives will progress slowly; no concrete step towards a common currency or against the dollar is on the agenda. The most likely course is for the number of initiatives to grow while implementation remains dependent on the rotating chair.

Likely effects

Dollar and payment systemsUncertain1–6 months
Although the declaration supports the use of local currencies, it keeps a common currency and a direct challenge to the dollar off the table; this weakens expectations of a break in the reserve currency order in the near term.
Trade facilitationPositive6 months+
The voluntary 2026 AEO Action Plan, the annual joint customs operation and the 2026–2030 value chain plan could lower procedural costs in intra-member trade over time; the absence of a financing instrument limits the pace.
Reading for TürkiyeUncertain6 months+
BRICS taking shape as a technical cooperation platform rather than an ideological bloc offers countries such as Türkiye, which are weighing partner or observer options, a lower-cost framework in their relations with the West.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Busy but dispersed BRICS60%
The number of initiatives grows, implementation remains tied to the priorities of a chair that changes every year, and customs and value chain steps progress slowly.
Watch: Whether New Delhi's initiatives feature in the 2027 chair's programme and whether an amount is announced for the Startup Innovation Fund
2
Step towards institutionalisation25%
A follow-up mechanism under the Troika or an online decision archive becomes operational; financing is attached to selected initiatives.
Watch: The Continuity and Implementation Mechanism formally entering the next summit declaration
3
Consensus unravels15%
Iran–UAE or India–China tensions again block a joint text at the next summit; the group becomes unable to produce a declaration.
Watch: Whether the next BRICS foreign ministers' meeting produces a joint text

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Original publication: delhipolicygroup.org · 18 September 2026

This page summarises the institution's view and does not reflect the view of Talay Insight. No direct quotation is used.