Seen from Moscow, the real rupture is Bab el-Mandeb, not Hormuz

Summary

Trade and customs policy expert Mikhail Bernovskiy published an opinion piece on 22 September 2026 in the Moscow-based journal Russia in Global Affairs. He argues that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has so far remained manageable, but that a closure of Bab el-Mandeb as well could bring down global merchandise trade. According to the author, the Hormuz shock was cushioned by Saudi Arabia's East–West pipeline to the port of Yanbu. With this Red Sea outlet out of action, Saudi oil is being loaded at Sidi Kerir in Egypt and shipped to Asia around the Cape of Good Hope. This adds about a month to normal delivery times. Bernovskiy notes that experts expect the price per barrel to reach 120 dollars. He adds, however, that the exchange price does not reflect the cost of a barrel that is twice as expensive and delivered through extended logistics.

The author argues that the crisis will unfold first as cost inflation, then as consumer inflation, and then as a consumption crisis marked by deferred orders. He cites irregular supplies of Arab oil to South Korea and petrol shortages in France as examples. With oil prices up 30% in a quarter, he writes, everything shipped over great distances becomes more expensive. Europe's distribution network, built on sea and land transport, is in his view the structure most exposed to disruption in container circulation. In his view, China's excess production capacity now acts as a buffer for many countries, while Russia, standing outside the troubled routes, can raise export revenue and protect the rouble. As a lasting solution he proposes the corridor through the Arctic; for the near term, he calls for lifting sanctions and jointly cutting transport, insurance and customs costs.