The Black Sea moratorium hinges on the refinery bargain, not Ankara

The noise is in the ceasefire, the signal on the map

Trump announced on 11 October that Russia and Ukraine had agreed to halt long-range strikes on power plants and refineries. According to France 24, two days later, on the evening of 13 October, a Russian ballistic missile hit Kyiv's CHP-4 thermal plant, killing at least two people. Around 02:00 the same night, two merchant ships were hit by drones in Bulgaria's exclusive economic zone. The Turkish-owned Azov Concorde sank; UNN says 11 seafarers are missing.

The headline the market reads is the fragility of the ceasefire. What we read is location and ownership. According to a figure cited by Aydınlık on 9 October, 52 of the 73 merchant ships attacked since January are linked to Türkiye. İMEAK data cited by Euronews show 163 of the 226 ships affected since February 2022 were hit in the first eight months of 2026. Ambrey says at least 45 merchant ships have been struck in the past 12 months in areas not previously regarded as high-risk.

Constraint 1 · Ankara's protection ends at 12 miles

According to Oilprice, the London marine insurance market extended the high-risk notification area to the whole Black Sea in September; the territorial waters of Bulgaria, Romania, Georgia and Türkiye were exempted. The war premium per voyage rose from about $200,000 to $2.5 million, a 12.5-fold increase. That exemption makes the Turkish coast the cheapest corridor in insurance terms.

The draft Ankara sent to Moscow and Kyiv in mid-September follows the same line. Euronews says the text is modelled on the 2022 grain initiative and envisages an alternative route through Turkish and Georgian territorial waters. The problem is that the three Turkish-owned ships sank in the economic zones of Romania and Bulgaria, outside Turkish territorial waters. Euronews reports that the mine-countermeasures task group of Türkiye, Romania and Bulgaria has been activated for the 12th time, and Türkiye is running the NUSRET-2026 exercise on 6–16 October with 20 ships and five aircraft. Neither provides escorts for merchant ships sailing in the economic zones.

Constraint 2 · Moscow will not separate ships from refineries

Euronews says Putin stated on 1 October that he would not accept proposals linking ship attacks to attacks on Russian refineries. Fidan said both sides had responded to the draft but that reconciling their demands was difficult; Peskov said substantive negotiations had not begun. Lavrov had judged the first proposal of 8 August unrealistic.

According to the Kyiv Independent, Zelenskiy said on 13 October that Ukraine had not struck Russian refineries for two days. Russia, meanwhile, had carried out more than 200 attacks on power facilities in the past week. In other words, Kyiv put its card on the table, Moscow did not reciprocate, and the same night a Turkish-owned ship sank. Bulgarian Prime Minister Radev said he had no conclusive proof but that it made no sense for Ukraine to strike its own ships; the perpetrator has not been officially confirmed.

Constraint 3 · The mediator is also the biggest shipowner

In this basin Türkiye is at once mediator, NATO member and owner of the most-hit fleet. Euronews says Bulgaria will take proposals for satellite monitoring, a compensation mechanism and an Aspides-style naval mission to the 15–16 October EU summit. Bulgarian President Yotova argued that NATO activity does not breach Montreux. The Sofia Globe says Bulgaria's defence minister spoke by phone on 13 October with Yaşar Güler and his Romanian counterpart.

This leaves Ankara with two options. Either it tries to attach the moratorium to the US energy-ceasefire package, or it defends Montreux in a debate over an EU mission entering the Black Sea. Euronews notes that Bloomberg reported in early October that Türkiye and the UN were planning new contacts through a Swiss-based mediation body; the outcome of those contacts has not been disclosed.

Why now · The basin has moved to the centre of the energy bargain

The chain took shape in September. The London insurance market widened the risk area to the whole basin that month, and in mid-September Ankara sent its draft to Moscow and Kyiv. In the first week of October two Turkish-owned ships sank, on 5 and 6 October; Oilprice says there has been no word from 10 of the Alfa Watan's seafarers. According to CBS, Trump announced a deal on 9 October under which Russia would release 300,000 tonnes of diesel in a first phase, and declared the energy ceasefire on 11 October.

That sequence did not leave the Black Sea outside the Washington–Moscow energy bargain; it moved it to the centre. Part of Russia's product exports leaves from Azov and Black Sea terminals; The Moscow Times says the Rostov terminal hit on 10 October handles 3.5 million tonnes a year. Every ship lost in the basin also raises the insurance cost of those exports. Ankara's only separate card is the four-country insurance exemption for territorial waters, and that could change with the market's next notice.

What comes next

The first threshold is the 15–16 October EU summit: if Bulgaria's proposals make it into the conclusions, the basin drifts towards a security framework that leaves Türkiye outside. The second is whether the Kremlin confirms the energy ceasefire with a date and scope; Kyiv's refinery pause was two days old as of 13 October. The third is insurance: if a new London market notice touches the territorial-water exemption, the cheap corridor along the Turkish coast closes too. We put the chance of the moratorium being signed in the near term at 30%.