A data fog settles on oil as two major supply sources blur

One strait, three different figures

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said roughly 13 million barrels of crude a day were passing through Hormuz, according to Al Jazeera's report of 28 September. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent gave a range of 15–22 million barrels a day for the same strait. Data from the ship-tracking firm Kpler, however, show a September average of 7.4 million barrels a day. The normal pre-war flow was about 20 million barrels a day. Even the lowest official figure is therefore about 1.8 times the tracking data.

Kpler's weekly data do not support the official 13 million narrative either. According to an OE Digital report based on preliminary Kpler data, 33.7 million barrels had left by 25 September in the week beginning 20 September. The figure for the previous full week was 49.2 million barrels. According to Anadolu Agency, Trump claimed on 29 September that an unprecedented amount of oil had been taken out of the strait in recent days. He gave no flow figure to support this.

When the transponder goes dark, so does the count

Part of the gap between 13 million and 7.4 million comes from the method of measurement. Ships broadcast their position through the automatic identification system, AIS, using 1 transmitter known as a transponder. When the device is switched off, the ship drops off the tracking screen. According to Windward's daily summary, 24 ships passed through Hormuz on 27 September and 14 of them did so with their signal off. That means 58% of transits were invisible to an AIS-based count. The IMF PortWatch record cited by Straits.live, meanwhile, shows 1 transit on 20 September as its latest data point.

The 7.4 million tracking figure should therefore be read as the lower bound of the real flow. The official range of 13–22 million is an upper claim whose evidence has not been disclosed. According to Al Jazeera, total Gulf exports rose to 12.8 million barrels a day in September. That is the highest level since 28 February but below the 18.8 million of February. How much of that 12.8 million left through the strait and how much by pipeline cannot be read from any single series either.

Moscow drew the curtain by law

On 29 September Putin signed a decree classifying Russian energy data as information that may not be made public. According to an Anadolu Agency report citing Russia's official legal information portal, the scope covers at least 8 headings. They include refinery throughput, product output, the volume and price of exports, and the identities of buyers and intermediaries. Payment methods, tanker routes, terminals and aggregate customs statistics are also covered. Agencies were given 10 days to draw up implementing rules.

Russia had been withdrawing production and export statistics from publication step by step since April 2022. The decree turned a trend of more than 4 years into a legal obligation. According to a Barents Observer report from November 2024, a similar draft had been sent to the Kremlin with the aim of concealing export arrangements that exceed the price cap. The result is the same as at Hormuz. In 10 days Russian refinery losses and exports will be open to estimation only through ship tracking and satellite imagery. Yet those same tools miss 14 of 24 transits at Hormuz.

Prices follow the headline and the contract is changing too

With measurement blurred, prices react to headlines, and 29 September was an example. According to Anadolu Agency, Brent's December contract rose 1.6% to 99.42 dollars at 09:59 that morning, on contradictory statements from the US and Iran. That day Araghchi handed Qatari mediators a proposal setting out steps to be taken within 4–5 days and negotiations to begin on the 7th day. An unnamed US official said sanctions relief could be considered in return for nuclear concessions, while Trump said he had made no such offer. That produced 2 opposing messages in 1 day.

In the evening the direction changed, and according to AA Brent closed 2.94 dollars (2.8%) lower at 102.35 dollars. This time the reason was 2 pieces of supply news: the return of the Saudi East-West pipeline and rising tanker traffic at Hormuz. The same unverifiable flow thus served as the reason for both the rise and the fall within 1 day.

Moreover, 99.42 dollars and 102.35 dollars are not prices of the same contract. A futures contract is a price agreed today for delivery of oil in a given month, and every contract has 1 last trading day. Brent for November delivery expires on 30 September, and from 1 October the Brent in the headlines will be the December contract. AA's closing report does not state the contract month. However, the 2.94 dollar fall puts the previous close at about 105.29 dollars, which is consistent with the November contract. The December contract closed at 97.83 dollars on 28 September, so the gap between the two contracts is 7.46 dollars.

This situation, where near delivery costs more than distant delivery, is called backwardation. The 7.46 dollar gap shows the market is pricing scarcity as a problem of the present. A headline price that looks about 7 dollars lower on 1 October will therefore be a contract change, not relief. The December contract's close on 29 September does not appear in the 2 sources we consulted, so the gap's value on that day could not be verified.

Tehran's clock, Türkiye's bill

According to Anadolu Agency, the dollar rose 3.84% to 2.542 million rials on Iran's free market on 29 September, from 2.4 million rials 1 day earlier. That speed explains why Tehran proposed a 7-day timetable. As Washington ties sanctions relief to nuclear concessions, time works against Iran. Each contradictory statement can move the exchange rate by several percentage points in 1 day.

Türkiye imports crude at prices indexed to Brent. The bill is set by the 102.35 dollar headline price, not by the unverifiable flow. Because physical cargoes are priced off near-delivery prices, the contract switch on 1 October will not make the bill 7.46 dollars cheaper. The Russian decree also concerns Türkiye directly. The volume, price and buyer identity of exported product will become closed data on the Russian side within 10 days. From then on Türkiye's diesel purchases from Russia can be followed through only 2 sources, Turkish customs data and ship tracking. The current volume of those purchases appears in none of the 5 event records underlying this report and could not be verified here.

There are 3 indicators for the next 10 days. The first is whether the December contract falls below 97.83 dollars, its close on 28 September. The second is whether the share of signal-off transits in Windward's count rises above 58%. The third is which series Russian agencies withdraw from publication when the 10-day period ends.