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TALAYINSIGHT
RegionTürkiye and Its Neighbourhood

HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt23 September 2026, Wednesday

Dollar hits new high of 48.84 lira on 23 September; calculations show CBRT reserves fell $13.9 billion in 4 weeks to $174.5 billion

After peaking at 48.82 on 21 September, the dollar/lira rate set a new record of 48.84 on 23 September. Over the same period, CBRT gross reserves were calculated to have fallen by $4.2 billion in the week of 18 September to $174.5 billion; the 4-week loss is $13.9 billion and the gap to the January peak $43.7 billion.

Location: ISTANBUL

According to the exchange-rate table published by Halk TV on the morning of 23 September, the dollar renewed its all-time high at 48.84 lira; as of 02:00, it stood at 48.85 bid and 48.86 lira ask, the euro at 55.72–55.77 lira and sterling at 64.81–64.87 lira. The rate had broken the previous record at 48.82 lira on 21 September. The report linked dollar demand to the Fed's message that it would keep rates high until the end of the year.

On the reserves side the picture is sharper. According to a calculation reported by CNBC-e on 21 September, based on Matriks data, the CBRT's total reserves fell by about $4.2 billion, from $178.7 billion in the week of 11 September to $174.5 billion in the week of 18 September. This is the 4th consecutive weekly decline: reserves have shed a total of $13.9 billion since $188.4 billion on 21 August and stand $43.7 billion below the record of $218.2 billion on 30 January 2026. Reserves had bottomed at $149.2 billion at the end of June.

These figures are market calculations; the CBRT's official weekly reserve data will be released on 24 September, and the official 18 September figure could not be verified at the time of writing. Net reserves and net reserves excluding swaps were not available from these sources.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The new high in the exchange rate is not surprising in itself; the managed depreciation policy produces small records every day. The real signal is the rising reserve cost of maintaining this pace: a $13.9 billion drain in 4 weeks is rapidly thinning the CBRT's buffer while the energy bill and global dollar demand persist. The most likely path is continued gradual depreciation and further reserve declines.

Likely effects

  • Foreign exchange reservesNegativeWeeks

    Reserves falling to $174.5 billion raise the risk of a return to June's $149.2 billion trough; as the buffer thins, exchange-rate policy loses flexibility.

  • InflationNegative1–6 months

    The gradual rise in the exchange rate passes through to prices via imported energy and intermediate goods, feeding the risk that 2026 inflation stays above 30%.

  • External financingNegative1–6 months

    Reserve losses combined with currency pressure make it necessary to monitor the sovereign risk premium and the cost of external borrowing.

Possibilities, ranked

  1. 1
    Managed weakening, continued reserve loss55%

    The rate rises in small daily steps and reserves fall for a few more weeks, but there is no panic.

    Watch: CBRT weekly reserve data for 24 September and 1 October

  2. 2
    Reserves recover30%

    Falling energy prices and portfolio inflows lift reserves back above $180 billion.

    Watch: Weekly foreign securities transactions and the Brent futures price

  3. 3
    Accelerating currency pressure15%

    Reserve losses accelerate and the CBRT is forced to take additional tightening steps.

    Watch: Dollar/lira rising more than 0.5% a day and any additional CBRT decision texts

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

  • Dollar/lira▲ 48.84 lira
  • CBRT gross reserves (18 Sep)▼ $174.5bn
  • 4-week reserve loss▼ $13.9bn
  • Euro/lira▲ 55.77 lira

Historical context

USD/TRY, last 6 months

43.9145.2946.6748.0649.4426/0306/0511/0616/0721/0828/0916 September 2026 — BIST 100 fell 5.54% to 13,122.58 points as 17 stocks closed at the floor price117 September 2026 — Diesel passed 100 lira a litre in Türkiye for the first time: a third consecutive increase221 September 2026 — Central government debt stock rose by 422.5 billion lira in August to 15.89 trillion lira; foreign-currency share at 51%321 September 2026 — The dollar reaches an all-time high of 48.82 lira as the BIST 100 falls 1.92% at midday to 13,028.71 points421 September 2026 — The 72,825 dwt tanker LR Stephanie is struck in Hormuz and two seafarers wounded; weekend transits fall to 17 ships521 September 2026 — Export producer prices rose 32.60% year on year in August, with the increase in energy reaching 106.24%623 September 2026 — Dollar hits new high of 48.84 lira on 23 September; calculations show CBRT reserves fell $13.9 billion in 4 weeks to $174.5 billion724 September 2026 — BIST 100 falls 2.74% to 12,888 points on 24 September as the 2-year lira bond yield climbs to 37.09%: Fed and oil pressure hit Turkish assets824 September 2026 — CBRT official data: in the week of 18 September gross reserves fell by 4.3 billion dollars to 174.4 billion, net reserves by 6.4 billion to 55.8 billion925 September 2026 — Türkiye's CDS tops 250 for the first time since 27 May: as the $18 billion liquidation of 131 funds proceeds, Erdoğan says no systemic risk; 45 arrested1026 September 2026 — Yılmaz puts the war's impact on inflation at 7 points, citing CBRT calculations; 10-year yield ended the week higher at 32.77% on 25 September11
  1. 116/09 · BIST 100 fell 5.54% to 13,122.58 points as 17 stocks closed at the floor price
  2. 217/09 · Diesel passed 100 lira a litre in Türkiye for the first time: a third consecutive increase
  3. 321/09 · Central government debt stock rose by 422.5 billion lira in August to 15.89 trillion lira; foreign-currency share at 51%
  4. 421/09 · The dollar reaches an all-time high of 48.82 lira as the BIST 100 falls 1.92% at midday to 13,028.71 points
  5. 521/09 · The 72,825 dwt tanker LR Stephanie is struck in Hormuz and two seafarers wounded; weekend transits fall to 17 ships
  6. 621/09 · Export producer prices rose 32.60% year on year in August, with the increase in energy reaching 106.24%
  7. 723/09 · Dollar hits new high of 48.84 lira on 23 September; calculations show CBRT reserves fell $13.9 billion in 4 weeks to $174.5 billion
  8. 824/09 · BIST 100 falls 2.74% to 12,888 points on 24 September as the 2-year lira bond yield climbs to 37.09%: Fed and oil pressure hit Turkish assets
  9. 924/09 · CBRT official data: in the week of 18 September gross reserves fell by 4.3 billion dollars to 174.4 billion, net reserves by 6.4 billion to 55.8 billion
  10. 1025/09 · Türkiye's CDS tops 250 for the first time since 27 May: as the $18 billion liquidation of 131 funds proceeds, Erdoğan says no systemic risk; 45 arrested
  11. 1126/09 · Yılmaz puts the war's impact on inflation at 7 points, citing CBRT calculations; 10-year yield ended the week higher at 32.77% on 25 September

Sources

  1. Halk TV — Exchange rates, 23 September 2026
  2. CNBC-e — Central Bank gross reserves calculated to have fallen for 4 weeks
  3. Doğupost — CBRT reserves on a losing streak: 13.9 billion dollars lost in four weeks