HighIV Macro Policy & Sovereign Debt24 September 2026, Thursday
CBRT official data: in the week of 18 September gross reserves fell by 4.3 billion dollars to 174.4 billion, net reserves by 6.4 billion to 55.8 billion
According to weekly data published by the CBRT on 24 September, total reserves fell by 4.319 billion dollars to 174.405 billion dollars in the week of 18 September. Net reserves dropped by 6.41 billion dollars to 55.84 billion dollars, and net reserves excluding swaps fell by 6.8 billion dollars to 43.1 billion dollars.
According to a Cumhuriyet report dated 24 September, the Central Bank's gross foreign currency reserves fell by 5.636 billion dollars to 62.808 billion dollars in the week of 18 September, while gold reserves rose by 1.317 billion dollars to 111.597 billion dollars. As the loss on the foreign currency side exceeded the valuation gain on gold, total reserves fell by 4.319 billion dollars to 174.405 billion dollars. According to data cited by Ekotürk, net international reserves declined from 62.25 billion dollars the previous week to 55.84 billion dollars, a weekly loss of 6.41 billion dollars.
According to a Bloomberg HT report dated 24 September, gross reserves are at their lowest level since early August and the cumulative loss over 4 weeks is around 14 billion dollars. According to the same report, net reserves fell below 60 billion dollars for the first time since the end of July, while net reserves excluding swaps fell by 6.8 billion dollars to 43.1 billion dollars. The data largely confirm the gross level of around 174.5 billion dollars projected by market calculations on 23 September. Over the same period, the dollar stayed in record territory at 48.87 lira on 24 September. How much of the reserve loss stems from CBRT foreign currency sales and how much from state bank transactions has not been officially disclosed; this breakdown could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
Reserve erosion now stretching into a fourth week shows the CBRT is spending its foreign currency buffer to hold the lira in record territory. Although the 1.3-billion-dollar valuation gain on gold softens the gross picture, the weekly loss of 6.4–6.8 billion dollars in net and swap-excluded net reserves shows the buffer thinning quickly if external pressure from the Fed and oil persists.
Likely effects
- Exchange rate policyNegativeWeeks
Net reserves excluding swaps falling to 43.1 billion dollars show that the cost of the managed depreciation policy for USD/TRY has risen to a band of 5–7 billion dollars a week.
- Risk premiumNegative1–6 months
While reserve losses continue, 5-year CDS is expected to stay under upward pressure from 240.86 basis points on 23 September; external borrowing costs rise.
- Gold bufferUncertain1–6 months
Gold reserves of 111.6 billion dollars make up around two-thirds of the total; the rise in the ounce price partly shields gross reserves.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Losses slow50%
Oil stabilises around 100 dollars and Fed expectations calm; the weekly reserve loss falls to 2–3 billion dollars.
Watch: Reserve data for the week of 25 September, due on 1 October
- 2Erosion continues35%
Fed hike expectations and oil pressure persist, and net reserves fall below 50 billion dollars.
Watch: USD/TRY settling above 49 lira and net reserves excluding swaps falling below 40 billion dollars
- 3Additional tightening15%
The CBRT moves to additional tightening via the corridor or a macroprudential step to halt reserve losses.
Watch: An extraordinary CBRT announcement or a change in the overnight rate corridor
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Net reserves (weekly)▼ −6.41 billion $
- Gross reserves▼ 174.4 billion $
- USD/TRY (24 Sep)▲ 48.87
Historical context
USD/TRY, last 6 months
- 116/09 · BIST 100 fell 5.54% to 13,122.58 points as 17 stocks closed at the floor price
- 217/09 · Diesel passed 100 lira a litre in Türkiye for the first time: a third consecutive increase
- 321/09 · Central government debt stock rose by 422.5 billion lira in August to 15.89 trillion lira; foreign-currency share at 51%
- 421/09 · The dollar reaches an all-time high of 48.82 lira as the BIST 100 falls 1.92% at midday to 13,028.71 points
- 521/09 · The 72,825 dwt tanker LR Stephanie is struck in Hormuz and two seafarers wounded; weekend transits fall to 17 ships
- 621/09 · Export producer prices rose 32.60% year on year in August, with the increase in energy reaching 106.24%
- 723/09 · Dollar hits new high of 48.84 lira on 23 September; calculations show CBRT reserves fell $13.9 billion in 4 weeks to $174.5 billion
- 824/09 · BIST 100 falls 2.74% to 12,888 points on 24 September as the 2-year lira bond yield climbs to 37.09%: Fed and oil pressure hit Turkish assets
- 924/09 · CBRT official data: in the week of 18 September gross reserves fell by 4.3 billion dollars to 174.4 billion, net reserves by 6.4 billion to 55.8 billion
- 1025/09 · Türkiye's CDS tops 250 for the first time since 27 May: as the $18 billion liquidation of 131 funds proceeds, Erdoğan says no systemic risk; 45 arrested
- 1126/09 · Yılmaz puts the war's impact on inflation at 7 points, citing CBRT calculations; 10-year yield ended the week higher at 32.77% on 25 September