Russian diesel has its licence; refineries and terminals remain the bottleneck

The noise is the licence; the constraint is in the refinery

The headline came from Washington on the evening of 9 October. After speaking to Putin, Trump wrote that Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel and 500,000 tonnes in November. Then would come 1 million tonnes, and a further 3 million depending on the state of its refineries. Newsweek reports that the White House put the total at 4.8 million tonnes. According to NBC, OFAC, the Treasury's sanctions office, issued a temporary general licence the same day, valid until 7 April 2027. The next day, Anadolu Agency reported, the Russian government partially lifted its export ban and approved 500,000 tonnes for this phase.

The number itself is small. By our calculation, at about 7.45 barrels a tonne, 4.8 million tonnes comes to 35.8 million barrels. An estimate cited by Al Jazeera puts world diesel consumption at roughly 30 million barrels a day. The whole package therefore equals 1.2 days of global demand. The constraint in this report is not the licence. What determines Russian diesel's return to the market is the current throughput of the refineries and loading terminals Ukraine has struck.

Constraint 1 · Logistics: the loading points are on the front line

On the night the licence took effect, Ukrainian drones set fire to the Yug Rusi terminal in Rostov-on-Don. Kyiv Post reports that the terminal, linked to the Novoshakhtinsk refinery, has a design capacity of about 2.5 million tonnes a year. The Rostov governor said more than 50 drones were downed over the region. By our calculation the terminal can handle about 208,000 tonnes a month, or 42% of Moscow's first 500,000-tonne tranche. How long it will stay shut could not be verified.

Kyiv's stance keeps this channel open. NBC reports that Zelenskiy said he would halt strikes on Russian oil and gas targets only if Russia accepted the same terms, and called the licence an obvious weakness. Ukraine's second strike, on 8 October, on the Omsk refinery 2,500 km away shows its reach now covers all of European Russia. The licence removed the sanctions constraint, but not the physical risk to loading.

Constraint 2 · Supply security: the threshold for the export ban

The threshold lies in refinery output. Windward and Vortexa data cited by Al Jazeera show Russian diesel and gasoil exports falling from 850,000 barrels a day in the first quarter to 190,000 in the third, a drop of 78%. In the third quarter Russia imported petrol, diesel and gasoil for the first time. Ukraine's Defence Ministry says it has knocked out more than half of Russia's refining capacity. That claim could not be independently verified, and official Russian data have been withheld since a decree of 29 September. Putin has acknowledged that the strikes cost Russia 1% of GDP.

Moscow's decision came without that threshold being crossed. According to The Moscow Times, Novak said on 2 October that the ban had been extended but that a partial opening would be considered if diesel output exceeded domestic demand. Eight days later the government statement tied the decision to the Putin–Trump understanding, not to an output condition. Novak said production would cover both the domestic market and exports. Neil Atkinson, a former IEA official speaking to Al Jazeera, judged that Russia could free up the volume in the near term by squeezing domestic supply. The final and largest tranche of the package, 3 million tonnes, was explicitly made conditional on the state of the refineries.

By our calculation the first two tranches in the 9 October announcement, 800,000 tonnes, amount to about 6 million barrels by the end of November. That is 115,000 barrels a day over roughly 52 days. The pace equals about 14% of Russia's first-quarter exports, and 41% of the 281,000 barrels a day that Türkiye alone took from Russia in 2025.

Second round · The diesel bill and Türkiye

The price channel reacted on day one but did not change direction. NBC reports that diesel futures fell 4% on 9 October yet remain more than 110% higher since the start of the year. According to CBS, US diesel cost $6.28 a gallon on 8 October, against a record $6.53 on 22 September; Al Jazeera puts the September record at $6.52. Alhurra reports that European diesel futures had risen 6% on 8 October on the Hormuz attacks. Investing.com data show Brent futures closing 9 October at $104.72.

The link to Türkiye is direct. According to a Reuters report published by Baird Maritime, Türkiye sourced 85% of its diesel imports from Russia in 2025. The ban cut that share to 20% in August, and the gap was filled by more than 120,000 barrels a day from India and 90,000 from the US. The licence opens a route back to cheap Russian diesel, but with two risks. It expires on 7 April 2027, and according to Al Jazeera the 2026 sanctions law signed in September allows 100% tariffs on the five largest buyers of Russian oil. Whether the licence covers that tariff risk could not be verified.

What would refute this

Two developments would refute the thesis. First, if ship-tracking data show Russian diesel and gasoil exports averaging more than 400,000 barrels a day in November, the constraint really is sanctions rather than refineries, and the licence has opened up supply. Second, if the Russian government does not tighten the ban again on 31 October and the 1 million-tonne tranche starts on schedule in December, the power of terminal strikes to cut flows has been overstated. Conversely, if Moscow curbs exports again in November, our reading gains strength.