MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints22 September 2026, Tuesday
Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline, shut by a drone attack on 13 September, at low flow on 22 September; full capacity will take weeks
On 22 September Saudi Arabia restarted the 1,200 km East-West pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz to carry about 4 million barrels a day to Yanbu on the Red Sea. The line is pumping at low flow; Brent fell to 99.25 dollars that day and rose by nearly 4% the next.
According to a report by The National dated 22 September, the 1,200-kilometre East-West pipeline, shut down after drone attacks on 13 September, has been restarted, and crude loadings from the port of Yanbu were reported to be able to resume the same day. According to sources cited by Hydrocarbon Processing, the line is pumping at low flow after the restart and full recovery could take weeks; the target is 4 million barrels a day, equivalent to about 4% of global supply. Aramco did not comment on the restart timetable. According to the same report, traders are positioning tankers at Egypt's Port Said and Sidi Kerir ports for ship-to-ship transfers.
The sources give different measurement points for the price reaction. The National wrote that Brent fell intraday by 2.52% to 97.81 dollars and WTI by 3.11% to 89.50 dollars. Investing.com's historical table shows Brent futures closing 22 September down 1.09% at 99.25 dollars and 23 September up 4.09% at 103.31 dollars; Trading Economics gives 102.92 dollars, up 3.86%, for 23 September. The National also reported that while the line was shut, Saudi Arabia simultaneously loaded 7 supertankers with a total capacity of 14 million barrels from its Gulf terminals.
The shutdown was the result of a series of attacks in which drones launched from Iraq struck the line on 11 September and the Houthis claimed to have targeted Yanbu. The reopening restores the only major Saudi export route that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, but owing to the low flow and security risk, when Yanbu volumes will return to previous levels could not be verified.
Talay assessment
Bottom line
The reopening of the East-West line restores the only major outlet for Saudi supply while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, and the market priced this in on 22 September. But the line is running at low flow, full capacity will take weeks and Yanbu remains within range of drones launched by the Houthis and from Iraq. The near-4% jump on 23 September shows that supply relief is fragile in the face of security risk.
Likely effects
- Oil pricesPositiveWeeks
A gradual return of Yanbu flows pulls down the supply premium in Brent, but any news of a fresh attack could erase this effect in a single day.
- Competition for Russian oilUncertain1–6 months
The return of Saudi crude to Asia via the Red Sea creates discount pressure on Russian barrels in the Indian and Chinese markets.
- Türkiye's energy costsNegativeWeeks
Brent fluctuating around 100 dollars sustains uncertainty over Türkiye's crude and fuel import bill.
Possibilities, ranked
- 1Gradual recovery55%
The line raises its flow over the coming weeks, and Yanbu loadings become regular.
Watch: Weekly tanker loading counts from Yanbu
- 2Second outage after a new attack30%
The line or the Yanbu terminal is targeted again, and flows stop once more.
Watch: Drone attack claims from the Houthis and from Iraq
- 3Rapid return to full capacity15%
Aramco returns to 4 million barrels a day faster than expected.
Watch: Aramco's official capacity statement
Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.
Market reaction
Indicators affected
- Brent futures (22 Sep)▲ −1.09%
- Brent futures (23 Sep)▼ +4.09%
- Target line flow▲ 4m barrels/day
Historical context
Brent crude oil (futures), last 6 months
- 122/09 · Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline, shut by a drone attack on 13 September, at low flow on 22 September; full capacity will take weeks
- 224/09 · France sends troops, radar and air defence systems to Saudi Arabia's Yanbu oil terminal against Houthi attacks; troop numbers not disclosed
- 324/09 · Houthis fire 6 ballistic missiles at Yanbu and Taif; with the Red Sea end of the East-West pipeline targeted, Brent closes up 3.41% at $106.60
- 425/09 · Brent–WTI spread widens from $7.97 to $11.91 in a week: WTI ends the week lower at $92.41, Brent flat at $104.32
- 525/09 · Iran offers to open Hormuz by the end of day 7 if the US blockade and oil sanctions are lifted; Rubio says no breakthrough, Brent closes 2.1% lower at $104.32
- 625/09 · Diesel rises by 2.55 lira on 25 September after a 5.5-lira cut on 24 September; a litre climbs to 93.45 lira on Istanbul's European side
- 728/09 · Brent retreats from its intraday high as Yanbu news trims the premium
- 828/09 · Brent tops 106 dollars in Asia as Iran sees no new round