HighIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence24 September 2026, Thursday

Houthis fire 6 ballistic missiles at Yanbu and Taif; with the Red Sea end of the East-West pipeline targeted, Brent closes up 3.41% at $106.60

The Saudi-led coalition said on 24 September that it had intercepted 6 ballistic missiles fired by the Houthis at the port of Yanbu and at Taif. Yanbu is the outlet of the East-West pipeline, reopened on 22 September, that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz; Brent futures rose $3.52 the same day to close at $106.60.

Location: YANBU

According to Al Jazeera and AP reports dated 24 September, a coalition spokesperson said 6 ballistic missiles launched from Yemen had targeted the Red Sea port of Yanbu and the city of Taif and had been intercepted. According to Al Jazeera, a Greek Patriot battery deployed in the Yanbu area also shot down 1 ballistic missile and 1 drone; civil defence alerts were issued in several cities including Mecca, and it was later announced that the danger had passed. The accounts conflict: according to Al Jazeera, the Houthis said they had struck 1 'sensitive target' in Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu, whereas according to AP they said they had launched dozens of missiles and drones at Jizan province. As of 24 September, no information on damage or casualties could be verified.

The choice of target is critical for energy: according to GlobalSecurity's summary of 24 September, the East-West pipeline resumed operation at low throughput on 22 September after the attack on 13 September, and Aramco is trying to bring the line back to around 4 million barrels a day. According to Investrade's market summary of 24 September, Brent futures closed $3.52 (3.41%) higher at $106.60 and WTI $2.45 (2.66%) higher at $94.61, which implies a 23 September Brent close of $103.08. According to AP, more than 125,000 people have been displaced by new fighting in Yemen; according to WHO data cited by GlobalSecurity, 674 people have been killed and around 3,000 wounded since 6 August.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

By targeting Yanbu, the only remaining major outlet for Gulf oil while the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the Houthis have called Saudi Arabia's bypass capacity into question. The interception of 6 missiles limited physical losses, but Brent's 3.41% rise in a single day shows the market is now adding the Red Sea end to the risk premium. The most likely path is a slow recovery in Yanbu loadings under repeated attacks that cause no damage.

Likely effects

Oil pricesNegativeWeeks
Yanbu is the outlet port of the East-West pipeline, targeted at 4 million barrels a day; each new attack reduces the reliability of bypass flows and adds a risk premium to futures prices.
Freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
War-risk premiums for tankers leaving Yanbu in the Red Sea could rise much as they did in Hormuz; Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb also makes the southern exit risky.
Türkiye's energy billNegativeWeeks
Brent's rise to $106.60 on 24 September pushes up Türkiye's imported energy costs and fuel prices, which is negative for the current account deficit and the inflation outlook.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Intercepted attacks, slow recovery55%
Houthi attacks continue but are largely intercepted; Yanbu loadings rise gradually over weeks and the premium in Brent persists.
Watch: Aramco statements on East-West pipeline throughput and Yanbu loading data
2
Physical damage at Yanbu30%
An attack damages the port or a terminal; bypass flows stop again and Brent rises sharply.
Watch: Saudi authorities reporting damage at Yanbu
3
De-escalation on the Yemen front15%
A mediation channel opens between Riyadh and Sanaa, and missile launches become less frequent.
Watch: A one-week pause in Houthi announcements of attacks on Saudi targets

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Brent futures (24 Sep)▲ +3.41%
WTI (24 Sep)▲ +2.66%
Ballistic missiles intercepted▲ 6

Historical context