Talay Daily Brief
The strait went to the bargaining table, the premium moved to the core
23 September 2026, Wednesday · Talay Insight editorial desk · 9 core sources
IExecutive summary and market impact
On 22 September Iran conveyed that it could open Hormuz within 7 days if the United States lifted its blockade; the same evening a parliamentary committee approved articles providing for a fine of 20% of cargo value on vessels that break the rules, and only 2 commodity vessels transited the strait on 21 September. Brent fell to 98.50 dollars. At the same time the risk premium moved from the periphery to the core: on 21 September the premium rose in 14 of the 14 countries publishing a 5-year CDS observation, with Germany at 15.2%, Japan at 9.2% and France at 8.2% outpacing Türkiye's 4.1%.
The day's main break is that Hormuz has become a condition rather than a date. According to The National, a senior Iranian official said on 22 September that the strait could be opened within 7 days if the United States lifted the blockade it applies to ports; the Fars news agency denied the offer. The same evening the national security committee of Iran's parliament approved 3 articles providing for a fine of 20% of cargo value and temporary seizure for vessels that violate the transit rules. Trump announced that he had met 12 regional countries on the margins of the UN and that US and Iranian delegations had talked for 3 hours; Iran did not confirm this meeting. According to Kpler data only 2 commodity vessels transited the strait on 21 September, against 10 the day before and about 125 before the war. Brent fell 1.68% on 22 September to 98.50 dollars.
The market priced the carrot, not the stick. The 7-day offer works if the blockade is lifted; the 20% penalty regime, however, makes transit dependent on Iran's administrative approval even if the strait opens. What should therefore be expected in the near term is a period in which the benchmark price retreats on diplomatic headlines while insurance, freight and the actual transit count do not normalise at the same pace. The Saudi side is keeping two outlets open: according to Reuters, Saudi oil flowed through Hormuz at 2.9 million barrels a day over the previous 6 days, and the East-West pipeline has been restarted, though tests are reported to possibly take a week.
The second break is on the financial side. On 21 September the risk premium rose in 14 of the 14 countries publishing a 5-year CDS observation, and the largest proportional moves came from developed economies: Germany from 7.37 to 8.49 basis points (15.2%), Japan 9.2%, the United Kingdom 9.0%, France 8.2%. Türkiye widened from 232.80 to 242.43 (4.1%), while China widened by only 0.9%. Germany's move is 1.12 basis points in absolute terms; the series is thin and not a signal on its own. But the direction is shared: the France-Germany 10-year spread passed the Italy-Germany spread (89.3) at 102.0 basis points on 22 September, the United States' 69 billion dollar 2-year auction cleared at 4.787%, and Richmond Fed President Barkin left the door open to a further increase on 22 September.
The third line is the eve of the Xi-Trump summit on 24 September. China's rare earth magnet shipments to the United States fell 21% month on month in August to 512 tonnes; in the same week the sanctions act that became law in the United States on 18 September granted authority for tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian energy, and India's purchases of Russian crude fell in September to about 1.9 million barrels a day, the lowest level since April. Both sides are bringing a card to the table that is independent of the truce; sources diverge between 3 months and 2 years on the extension period for the trade truce that expires on 10 November.
48-hour catalyst calendar
Time (TRT, UTC+3)Event and threshold to watch
- 23 Sep 10:00CBRT September sectoral inflation expectations; the direction of the 12-month-ahead household expectation will be watched with August annual consumer inflation at 31.51%.
- 23 Sep 16:00South African Reserve Bank rate decision; Indonesia's decision is due the same day, with 5.75% expected.
- 23 Sep 16:45US flash PMIs; manufacturing expected at 53.6, composite at 55.2. The first flash data since the Fed's 16 September increase.
- 23 Sep 17:30EIA weekly petroleum report; previous commercial crude stocks 423.4 million barrels, and the API reported a build of 1.786 million barrels on 22 September.
- 23 SepIranian President Pezeshkian at the UN General Assembly; official confirmation or rejection of the 7-day Hormuz offer will be watched.
- 24 SepXi-Trump summit, Washington: magnet exports, chip controls, the extension period for the truce expiring on 10 November and the pending 14 billion dollar Taiwan package.
- 24 Sep 14:30CBRT weekly reserves and non-residents' securities transactions; foreign flows with CDS at 242.43 basis points.
- 24 Sep 22:00Banxico rate decision; a hold or a cut to 6.25% is expected.
- 25 Sep 11:00August foreign visitor arrivals; the impact of Iran flights being closed until March 2027 may become visible for the first time.
- 25 Sep 15:30US durable goods orders; −0.5% expected.
Implications
- Opening Hormuz is now a condition rather than a date: the 7-day offer is tied to the lifting of the US blockade, and transit to a penalty regime of up to 20% of cargo. Brent fell from 104.82 dollars on 17 September to 98.50 dollars on 22 September, but the number of commodity vessels transiting the strait on 21 September was 2.
- On 21 September the sovereign risk premium widened proportionally more in developed economies; the France-Germany 10-year spread passed Italy's 89.3 basis points at 102.0 basis points on 22 September, and the US 2-year auction cleared at 4.787%.
- Türkiye's sanctions compliance towards Iran comes from the balance sheet: 51% of central government debt is foreign currency-denominated, and THY, Pegasus and AJet flights to Iran are closed until March 2027; Türkiye's CDS rose to 242.43 basis points on 21 September.
·The day across five pillars
- Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood
The central government debt stock rose to 15,893.8 billion lira at the end of August and 51% of it is foreign currency-denominated; in the same week THY, Pegasus and AJet flights to Iran were closed until March 2027, and TÜNAŞ and USTDA launched a comparative assessment of 4 SMR and 5 fourth-generation reactor designs.
- Middle East and North Africa
Iran's 7-day opening offer and the 20% penalty regime came on the same day; according to the WSJ, Washington wants to put in 5 billion dollars to set up a 10 billion dollar fund for damaged Gulf energy facilities, while Iraq suspended Iranian flights in Baghdad, which the ministry denied.
- Europe
France's 10-year spread over Germany passed Italy's 89.3 at 102.0 basis points on 22 September; the European Court of Auditors found that despite 1.4 billion euros of cyber spending, member states reported only 14 cross-border incidents in 2025.
- Eurasia
The EU renewed its Russia sanctions for 36 months rather than 6 for the first time, and Usmanov and Fridman were removed from the list; the Kremlin tied an energy ceasefire to the lifting of sanctions.
- Asia-Pacific
South Korea's exports for 1-20 September rose 78.3% to 71.4 billion dollars, with chip exports of 34.13 billion dollars making up 47.8% of the total; China's gold imports passed 1,000 tonnes at the end of August.
- South Asia
Bangladesh raised fuel prices by 20 taka a litre on 21 September; diesel is at a record 135 taka but below the state company's cost of 187 taka. India's semiconductor market is projected to reach 200 billion dollars by 2035.
- Sub-Saharan Africa
In Sudan, Tasis alleged that the army had struck the South Sudan oil pipeline, and the army did not respond; 5 people were killed in an attack on the Umm Badr gold market. In Ethiopia 7 groups including the TPLF and Fano formed an alliance against Abiy's government.
- Americas
The US 2-year auction cleared at 4.787%, against 4.204% in August; Canada's Bill C-39 cuts federal review of major projects to 1 year, and the 27 initiatives at the Major Projects Office are worth 200 billion dollars.
IIGeopolitical reality check
Developments that move prices and decisions are separated from those that take up headlines without changing behaviour; the mainstream narrative is then tested against hard data.
Module B
Signal vs Noise
SIGNAL 60% · NOISE 40%
- SIGNAL
Iran is putting its penalty regime on a legal footing
On 22 September a parliamentary committee approved 3 articles providing for a fine of 20% of cargo value and temporary seizure for violating vessels; the 7-day opening offer came the same day.
Data: Strait of Hormuz transits ›WANA — 20% cargo fine, temporary seizure set as penalties for violations in Strait of Hormuz
- SIGNAL
The risk premium has moved from the periphery to the core
On 21 September the premium rose in 14 of the 14 countries publishing a CDS observation; Japan 9.2%, France 8.2%, Türkiye 4.1%.
- SIGNAL
China is using magnets as a card ahead of the summit
Rare earth magnet shipments to the United States fell 21% month on month in August to 512 tonnes; the 2024 monthly average was 621 tonnes.
Yahoo Finance (Bloomberg) — China's magnet exports to the US fall
- NOISE
Brent falling below 100 dollars shows the Hormuz risk has passed
Brent fell to 98.50 dollars on 22 September, but according to Kpler the number of commodity vessels transiting the strait was 2; the price measures diplomacy, the transit count measures physical flow.
Data: Brent crude oil ›Baird Maritime — Visible Strait of Hormuz commodity traffic tumbles to just two ships
- NOISE
The 15.2% jump in Germany's CDS points to German credit risk
In absolute terms the move was from 7.37 to 8.49 basis points, or 1.12 basis points; in a thin series a small trade creates a large proportional change.
Narrative vs data
Narrative: The widening of risk premiums on 21 September is an emerging market story: Latin American elections, IMF reviews and the USMCA negotiation.
Hard data: On the same day developed countries widened proportionally more. 5-year CDS, 18-21 September: Germany from 7.37 to 8.49 (15.2%), Japan from 22.83 to 24.93 (9.2%), the United Kingdom from 18.57 to 20.24 (9.0%), France from 43.60 to 47.19 (8.2%); Türkiye from 232.80 to 242.43 (4.1%), China 0.9%. The premium rose in 14 of the 14 countries publishing an observation. The France-Germany 10-year spread passed the Italy-Germany spread (89.3) at 102.0 basis points on 22 September.
Implication: The move comes not from sovereign credit but from the global rate regime: the Fed raised its range to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September, the BoJ to 1.25% on 18 September, and the market is pricing 3-4 increases for the ECB. Türkiye stayed within the bloc and did not diverge; so even if the domestic news flow improves, the premium will move with global rates. Germany's proportional jump is 1.12 basis points in absolute terms; the series is thin.
Investing.com — Germany 5-year CDSInvesting.com — France 5-year CDSIdeal Investisseur — OAT/Bund spreadANSA — BTP-Bund spread at 89.3 points
IIIConstraints matrix
Not what leaders want, but what financial, legal, geographic and systemic constraints force them to do. Preferences are cheap; constraints bind.
Iran · Government and the Revolutionary GuardsIR
Constraint · The US naval blockade is cutting export revenue: only 2 commodity vessels transited the strait on 21 September, against about 125 before the war. Over the same period Saudi oil moved through Hormuz at 2.9 million barrels a day over the previous 6 days; keeping the strait closed enlarges a rival's market share.
Behaviour it imposes · Carrot and stick on the same day: the 7-day opening offer from an official, the 20% fine and seizure articles from parliament, the denial via Fars. By preserving ambiguity it is making the lifting of the blockade a matter for bargaining.
United States · White House and the TreasuryUS
Constraint · The Fed raised its range to 3.75-4.00% on 16 September and the 2-year auction cleared at 4.787% on 22 September; borrowing costs have risen from 4.204% in August. Because the energy price passes through the inflation channel into rates, opening Hormuz is also a domestic political priority.
Behaviour it imposes · Multiplying its cards: a worldwide ban on servicing Iranian airlines takes effect on 23 September, and authority for tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian energy became law on 18 September; at the summit it is trying to keep the truce extension brief and conditional.
China · Party and the State CouncilCN
Constraint · The US sanctions act that became law on 18 September opened the way to tariffs of up to 100% on major buyers of Russian energy and created a second lever independent of the trade truce expiring on 10 November. On the truce extension, the United States is reported to have proposed 3-6 months against China's demand for 2 years.
Behaviour it imposes · Coming to the table having turned down the magnet tap: shipments to the United States fell 21% in August to 512 tonnes. At the summit it is resting the Taiwan arms sales item on the 1982 communiqué.
Russia · Kremlin and the GovernmentRU
Constraint · India's purchases of Russian crude fell in September to about 1.9 million barrels a day, the lowest since April, and Indian refiners are seeking alternatives for November deliveries. Ukraine claims that more than 45% of Russian refining capacity is out of action; this figure could not be verified.
Behaviour it imposes · It views an energy ceasefire favourably while setting the lifting of sanctions and tanker security as conditions; on the ground it continues ballistic strikes on Ukrainian gas infrastructure, with at least 5 missiles on Poltava on the night of 22 September.
Saudi Arabia · Government and AramcoSA
Constraint · The East-West line had been shut since 11 September; it has been restarted but tests are reported to possibly take a week. Flows through Hormuz rose from about 700,000 barrels a day in August to 2.9 million barrels a day over the previous 6 days.
Behaviour it imposes · Keeping both outlets open at once: moving volume through the risky Hormuz route while bringing Yanbu back into service; an intensive air campaign continues in Yemen.
Türkiye · Treasury, CBRT and TransportTR
Constraint · 51% of central government debt, or 8,145.8 billion lira, is foreign currency-denominated; the net foreign exchange deficit of non-financial firms was 210.8 billion dollars in July. The cost of putting access to the dollar system at risk is far greater than the revenue from Iran routes.
Behaviour it imposes · Quietly complying with sanctions: Mahan Air's services stopped on 21 September, and THY, Pegasus and AJet flights to Iran are off sale until March 2027. Diplomatic rhetoric and commercial compliance are diverging.
What the matrix says
What the matrix says is this: this week every actor is tying its card to time. Iran has tied the strait to a conditional 7-day offer, the United States the truce extension to 3-6 months, China magnets to monthly shipment volumes, and Russia an energy ceasefire to the sanctions calendar. As deadlines shorten, prices react to the calendar more than to events; that is why the 24 September summit and Iran's UN speech should be read not as outcomes in themselves but as the announcement of the next deadline. Türkiye's constraint, by contrast, is tied not to time but to the balance sheet; that is why its sanctions compliance proceeds independently of diplomatic rhetoric.
Module A
Constraints Matrix
STRUCTURAL AVG 4.0 · TACTICAL AVG 2.3Structural constraints dominate: the outcome is set more by these limits than by the actors' preferences.
Hard structural constraintspersistent · beyond the actors' will
Blockade and penalty regime · Iran
5/5Iran tied opening to the lifting of the US blockade, and transit to fine and seizure articles of up to 20% of cargo; transits were 2 vessels on 21 September.
Global rate regime · United States
4/5Fed range 3.75-4.00%, BoJ 1.25%, 3-4 increases priced for the ECB; CDS widened in 14 of 14 countries on 21 September.
Foreign currency debt · Türkiye
4/551% of Türkiye's central government debt is foreign currency-denominated and firms' net foreign exchange deficit is 210.8 billion dollars; access to the dollar system is a red line.
Magnet supply · China
3/5China's magnet shipments to the United States fell 21% in August to 512 tonnes; US alternative supply capacity is limited in the near term.
Tactical frictiontemporary · eases over time
East-West line tests days
3/5The Saudi East-West pipeline has been restarted, but tests are reported to possibly take about a week.
Data inconsistency days
2/5For Hormuz transits PortWatch and Kpler give 1 and 10 vessels for the same day; Brent's close ranges between 98.44 and 99.25 dollars depending on the source.
Indian refiners' cargo search weeks
2/5Indian refiners are seeking alternatives to Russian cargoes for November delivery; September purchases are about 1.9 million barrels a day.
IVBeyond the Atlantic view: blind spots
Points that Western analysis overlooks, attributed by author and institution. State media is flagged every time.
- 1
BRICS reached consensus, but who will follow up the decisions?
Ambassador Ruchira Kamboj, Senior Fellow at DPG, Delhi Policy Group (New Delhi) · 18 September 2026
The New Delhi summit produced the Declaration by consensus with 32 delegations and 15 bilateral meetings; a common currency and a direct challenge to the dollar were left out. The 2026-2030 value chain plan has no financing instrument, and the implementation mechanism proposed by Modi did not make it into the text. The risk is dispersion, not paralysis.
Note: The author is a former ambassador assessing the success of Indian diplomacy; the reading of consensus as success is not an independent assessment.
delhipolicygroup.org - 2
Xi's Cairo visit: China is offsetting the Hormuz shock through Egypt
Kadir Temiz, ORSAM (Ankara) · 13 September 2026
The 1-2 September visit coincided with the 70th anniversary of diplomatic relations and came ahead of the Trump meeting. According to the author, China's seaborne imports in August fell by about 40% compared with pre-war levels; cooperation is shifting from the Belt and Road towards semiconductors, critical minerals and green energy. Xi proposed a 4-point regional security framework.
Note: The figure of an approximately 40% fall in seaborne imports is not sourced in the article; it could not be independently verified.
orsam.org.tr - 3
SADC's 50 billion dollar plan waits on 4 ratifications
Joseph Upile Matola, SAIIA (Johannesburg) · 17 September 2026
The Southern African Development Community's industrialisation plan could cost up to 50 billion dollars; its regional fund, targeted at 13 billion dollars, has been ratified by only 4 members since 2016. Members fund less than 10% of projects. The author proposes making a 120 million dollar contribution mandatory and subject to penalties.
Note: The four countries that ratified the fund are as reported in the author's account; they could not be verified against the SADC secretariat's official list.
saiia.org.za - 4
From Moscow: BRICS is not an alliance but the first model of a multipolar order
Dmitri Trenin, RIAC, Russian International Affairs Council (Moscow) · 17 September 2026state media
According to Trenin, BRICS has no leader: neither China, with a population of 1.5 billion, nor Russia, the world's 4th largest economy by purchasing power, is the group's boss. Although Iran and the UAE are on opposing sides in the war, the group is not breaking up; Xi's Delhi visit was his first visit to India in 7 years.
Note: The text was published on the RIAC page with RIA Novosti (state media) as its source; RIAC is a state-linked institution. Normative claims are not verifiable facts.
russiancouncil.ru
VProbabilistic scenarios and asset-class implications
No firm forecasts are given. Percentages are calibrated judgement, not measurement. Competing explanations are set side by side.
H1Conditional opening, slow normalisation
50%- Trigger
- Iran confirms the offer at the UN, the United States gradually eases the blockade; the 20% penalty regime takes effect but is applied selectively.
- Impact
- Transits increase within weeks but remain far below pre-war levels; insurance and freight continue their slow retreat.
- Market transmission
- The retreat in Brent stays limited and the spread between crude and refined product stays open; for product importers such as Türkiye the exchange rate effect dominates.
H2The offer lapses, the status quo holds
35%- Trigger
- The offer is not officially confirmed, the blockade continues and the penalty articles become law; the summit produces no result on Hormuz.
- Impact
- Transits stay in single-digit vessel counts per day and Saudi Arabia leans on the Yanbu outlet; Brent gives back its diplomacy discount.
- Market transmission
- Brent could climb back above 100 dollars; risk premiums of energy-importing emerging economies and freight rise.
H3Tensions escalate
15%- Trigger
- A vessel is seized under the 20% penalty regime or a new tanker attack occurs; the United States retaliates.
- Impact
- Transit effectively halts and risk rises on the Red Sea side as well; Gulf exports are squeezed into pipelines.
- Market transmission
- A sudden rise in oil, gas and freight; demand for safe havens and global rate volatility increase, and risk premiums widen on a broad base.
Percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements.
Module C
Asset-Class and Positioning Implications
| Asset class | Exposure | Transmission channel | H1 | H2 | H3 | Expected | Conviction | Horizon | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Commodities | Front end of the crude oil curve | The Hormuz transit count and confirmation of Iran's offer are driving the price directly | − | + | ++ | +0.15 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Kpler daily Hormuz transit count |
| Freight & insurance | Gulf tanker freight and war risk premium | The 20% penalty regime makes transit subject to administrative approval even if the strait opens | 0 | + | ++ | +0.65 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Iran's penalty articles becoming law |
| Sovereign debt | Euro area periphery-core spreads | The France-Germany spread passed Italy; pricing of ECB increases is widening spreads | 0 | − | −− | −0.65 | ●●● | 3–12 months | France-Germany 10-year spread at 100 basis points |
| Credit | Emerging market sovereign risk premiums | The global rate regime is widening premiums independently of country news | + | − | −− | −0.15 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Türkiye 5-year CDS 250 basis point threshold |
| FX | Currencies of energy-importing emerging economies | The oil bill and dollar rates are applying pressure in the same direction | + | − | −− | −0.15 | ●●● | 0–3 months | USD/TRY and CBRT weekly reserves |
| Volatility | Global rate and energy volatility | The summit and the Iran calendar are generating near-dated deadlines | − | 0 | ++ | −0.20 | ●●● | 0–3 months | 24 September summit statement and the truce extension period |
Annex 1Türkiye dashboard
IndicatorLatestReading
- Policy rate
- 37.00%
- Unchanged since January; the door to energy-driven tightening is open until the 22 October MPC meeting.
- USD/TRY
- 48.82
- 22 September, flat just above the 21 September record; it enlarges the lira value of foreign currency debt.
- BIST 100
- 13,198.84
- 22 September close, −1.04% on the day; the 21 September close was confirmed at 13,337.69.
- 10-year yield
- 32.52%
- 22 September; below the 16 September peak of 32.83% and above 32.07% on 14 September.
- 5-year CDS
- 242.43 bps
- 21 September, +4.1% from 232.80 on 18 September; 7.57 basis points from the 250 threshold.
- Annual consumer inflation
- 31.51%
- August; 1.84% month on month, transport 35.08%. September data due on 5 October.
- Debt stock
- 15,893.8 bn TL
- End-August; +422.5 billion lira on the month, 51% foreign currency-denominated.
- Firms' net FX deficit
- 210.8 bn $
- July; +5.0 billion dollars in a month, and the short-term position surplus fell back to 4.4 billion dollars.
- Brent (in lira)
- ≈4,808 TL
- 22 September, 98.50 dollars × 48.82; while the dollar price falls, the lira price retreats only modestly because of the record exchange rate.
Annex 2 · Reading recommendation
Material World: The Six Raw Materials That Shape Modern Civilization
Ed Conway · Alfred A. Knopf, 2023 · penguinrandomhouse.com
Summary · Conway describes how dependent the digital age remains on six raw materials — sand, salt, iron, copper, oil and lithium — through a journey stretching from mines to chip fabs and lithium ponds. According to the publisher, in 2017 humanity extracted more material from the ground than in all of its history before 1950.
Why it matters · With Hormuz, magnet exports and critical minerals on the agenda, it offers concrete examples for reading the physical layer of bottlenecks: which material is processed where, and why the supply chain is fragile.
·Methodological transparency: what this issue does not know
Unverified items
- Iran's 7-day Hormuz opening offer rests on a single anonymous official; Fars denied the offer.
- Iran did not confirm the 3-hour US-Iran meeting announced by Trump.
- Ukraine's claim that more than 45% of Russian refining capacity is out of action could not be verified.
- ShinyHunters' claim to have taken 2-3 TB of data from the FBI has not been independently verified.
- Negotiating positions on the truce extension period rest on anonymous sources.
Conflicting sources (both reported)
- Brent's 22 September close is 98.50 (TradingEconomics), 98.44 (Straits.live) or 99.25 dollars (Reuters, November contract) depending on the source; the 100.05 dollars written yesterday does not match these closes. This issue uses the TradingEconomics value.
- Hormuz transits for 20 September: 1 vessel according to PortWatch, 10 according to Kpler; the pre-war baseline is about 125 according to Kpler and about 85 according to Straits.live.
- Casualties in the Kahbub hills in Yemen: Houthi sources 118, government sources 36, the Guardian's total up to 169.
- The start of the US ban on servicing Iranian airlines is 23 September in most sources and 24 September in Fox News.
- Truce extension period: according to CSIS the United States proposed 6 months, according to Breitbart 3-6 months; according to the Seoul Economic Daily China wants longer than 6 months.
Stale data warning
- There is no 21 September close for the US 5-year CDS; the latest value is 18 September.
- India's CDS series has not been updated since 26 September 2025; it is outside the panel.
- Firms' net foreign exchange position is July 2026 data.
Scenario percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements. State media sources are flagged separately. This issue is for information only and is not investment advice. Production process and rules: methodology · source universe
Principal sources
- The National — Iran offers to open Hormuz within seven days
- WANA — 20% cargo fine, temporary seizure set as penalties for violations in Strait of Hormuz
- Baird Maritime — Visible Strait of Hormuz commodity traffic tumbles to just two ships
- Investing.com — Germany 5-year CDS
- Ideal Investisseur — OAT/Bund spread
- TreasuryDirect — 2-year note auction result, 22 September 2026
- CNBC-e — Central government debt stock approaches 15.9 trillion lira
- Yahoo Finance (Bloomberg) — China's magnet exports to the US fall
- CSIS — Xi Jinping's return to Washington