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Talay Daily Brief

Oil is pricing scarcity now; bonds are pricing inflation later

29 October 2026, Thursday · Talay Insight editorial desk · 9 core sources

Brent$115.3228 Oct, December, +1.26%
US 10Y5.036%28 Oct, +4.3 bp after Fed
Gold$4,053.0128 Oct, −0.19%
Türkiye 5Y CDS258.30 bp27 Oct; 260.68 on 26 Oct
Japan 30Y3.875%28 Oct; BOJ 29–30 Oct
Egypt 5Y CDS351.13 bp27 Oct, −7.73 bp

Noise

The Fed held rates, so monetary policy remains loose

Signal

The far end of the curve is pricing inflation risk on the Fed's behalf

Signal vs Noise ›

IExecutive summary and market impact

The noise is reading the Fed's decision on 28 October to hold at 3.75–4.00% as easing. The signal is what followed: the US 10-year yield rose 4.3 basis points to 5.036% and the 2s10s spread widened from 25 to 32 basis points. The same day, the gap between the December 2026 and December 2027 Brent contracts stood at $26.72. The oil market is pricing scarcity into today's barrel; the bond market is pushing the cost of inflation out to the far end of the curve.

The decision came as expected. On 28 October the Fed held the federal funds range at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote, while the Bank of Canada raised its rate by 25 basis points to 2.50%. Headlines read the Fed's pause as easing. The market said something else: the US 2-year yield fell 2.5 basis points, while the 10-year rose to 5.036% and the 30-year to 5.363%. Investors are demanding a higher term premium — the extra yield required to hold distant maturities against inflation and uncertainty.

The vote split supports that reading. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack again called for a hike; what was new was the first dissent from governor Lisa Cook. The hawkish minority has not shrunk; it has moved from the regional banks to the Board in Washington. In Canada, the early hike had the opposite effect: the 2-year yield hit its highest since August 2024, while the 10-year added only 2.4 basis points. Both central banks decide again on the same day, 9 December.

The oil curve reads the same energy shock from the other end. On 27 October closes cited by Commodity Board, December 2026 Brent stood at $113.88 and December 2027 at $87.16. Axios reported on 28 October that the US and Israel had put Iran's energy facilities on their target list, yet December Brent moved only 1.2%. Iran's crude exports are already close to zero under the blockade, so the market locates the risk not in Iranian plants but in the scarcity of today's barrel. The same day NAVCENT told ships with no need to transit to stay clear of the Strait of Hormuz.

Türkiye is closed today for Republic Day; domestic pricing resumes on 30 October. Two channels stand out. A US 10-year yield holding above 5% raises the floor for dollar-denominated borrowing at extended maturities. In the Black Sea, two opposing currents ran on the same day. A fifth ship was attacked in Bulgaria's economic zone since the start of October, while Russia allowed grain ships out of the Sea of Azov for the first time since July. Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania set up a joint coordination mechanism in Sofia that same day.

48-hour catalyst calendar

  1. 29 OctRepublic Day in Türkiye; domestic markets are closed and local pricing of the Fed decision will come on 30 October.
  2. 29 Oct 16:15ECB decision; deposit rate at 2.50%. A hold is priced in; the real test is whether euro yields at the far end follow the post-Fed steepening in the US.
  3. 29–30 OctBOJ meeting; the Japanese 30-year yield kept rising on 28 October to 3.875% despite expectations of a hold.
  4. 30 OctICE Brent December contract expires; when the continuous series rolls into January the headline price will drop by roughly $4.60. The threshold to watch is a January–February spread staying above $3.
  5. 31 OctDeadline for self-employed tax returns in Belgium; the MyMinfin portal has been down since the 28 October cyber attack and the administration will extend the deadline.
  6. 1 NovOPEC+ meeting; according to Reuters sources, December output targets will not change.
  7. 3 NovUS midterm elections and Türkiye's October inflation. The FEC's electronic filing system has been offline since 26 October, so 24- and 48-hour expenditure reports cannot be filed.
  8. 9–10 NovThe suspension of the BIS affiliates rule ends; as of 28 October there was no extension text in the Federal Register. China's rare-earth suspension also expires on 10 November.
  9. 9 DecThe Fed and the Bank of Canada decide on the same day; markets price the odds of a Fed hike in December at 82–85%.

Implications

  • The Fed held by a 10–2 vote, yet the US 30-year yield climbed 5.8 basis points to 5.363%; futures cited by Rallies lifted the odds of a December hike from 75% to 82%.
  • Brent's December contract settled at $115.32 on 28 October and January at $110.72; when December expires on 30 October the continuous series will drop by roughly $4.60, and that drop is not easing.
  • US distillate stocks fell to 102.8 million barrels in the week to 23 October, 10% below the five-year average; for Türkiye, a diesel importer, the channel is the fuel bill within 1–3 months.

·The day across five pillars

IGeo-Economics & ChokepointsOn 28 October NAVCENT, in JMIC advisory 016-26, told ships with no need to transit to stay clear of the Strait of Hormuz; Bloomberg says Iranian attacks on shipping approached 30 in October. In the Black Sea a fifth ship was attacked in Bulgaria's economic zone, while Russia granted grain ships exit permits from the Sea of Azov valid until 15 November.IICyber Warfare & Critical InfrastructureThe US Federal Election Commission took its filing system offline on 26 October after an intrusion attempt; Belgium's finance ministry shut its tax portal on 28 October after an attack. In Taiwan, the ID numbers of 1,573 candidates were accessible for 11 days. OFAC designated 10 individuals and 1 entity linked to a North Korean IT worker network operating from a hub in Russia.IIIKinetic Conflicts & DefenceAccording to Axios, the US and Israel are preparing a new round of strikes on Iran's leadership, energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities if no deal emerges. A senior Iranian official called proposals relayed by Qatar unacceptable, while Foreign Minister Araghchi said Tehran was giving diplomacy a chance.IVMacro Policy & Sovereign DebtThe Fed held at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote, with Lisa Cook dissenting for the first time. The US 10-year yield rose to 5.036% and the 30-year to 5.363%, and the 2s10s spread widened to 32 basis points. The Bank of Canada lifted its rate to 2.50%, and the Canadian curve flattened.VTechnology Geopolitics & AISolidigm has made its $45 billion US plant conditional on an equipment licence for its Dalian facility. The suspension of the BIS affiliates rule ends on 9 November, and as of 28 October no extension text had been published. Ukraine named 49 organisations behind Russia's Rassvet satellite communications system; according to HUR, 23 of them are on no sanctions list.VIEnergy Politics & Supply SecurityOn 27 October the gap between the December 2026 and December 2027 Brent contracts was $26.72. According to the EIA, US distillate stocks fell to 102.8 million barrels, 10% below the five-year average, while gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels. The Commission said on 28 October that Europe will not return to Russian gas even if the war ends; Tanzania announced the decade's first large gas discovery at 223 billion cubic feet.VIIReinsurance & Specialty Risk
  • Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood

    On 28 October Türkiye, Bulgaria and Romania set up a joint coordination mechanism for the Black Sea in Sofia; the same day a fifth ship since the start of October was attacked in Bulgaria's economic zone. The Ministry of National Defence said Ankara is ready to sign a maritime jurisdiction agreement with Egypt that would give Cairo more than 15,000 square kilometres of additional area.

  • Middle East and North Africa

    On 28 October NAVCENT told ships with no need to transit to stay clear of the Strait of Hormuz. Axios reports that Iran's energy facilities are now on the US and Israeli target list; Iran found Qatar's proposals unacceptable, but Araghchi said Tehran was giving diplomacy a chance.

  • Europe

    The Commission said on 28 October that Europe will not return to Russian gas even if the war ends; REPowerEU bans Russian LNG from early 2027. The same day Belgium's finance ministry shut its MyMinfin tax portal after a cyber attack. The ECB decides on 29 October.

  • Eurasia

    On 28 October Russia allowed grain ships to leave the Sea of Azov for the first time since July, with permits valid until 15 November. Ukraine named 49 organisations behind Russia's Rassvet satellite communications system; Kyivstar is buying local cloud provider GigaCloud for up to $50 million.

  • Americas

    The Fed held at 3.75–4.00% by a 10–2 vote and Canada raised its rate to 2.50%. The US 10-year yield rose to 5.036%. The EIA puts distillate stocks 10% below the five-year average. The FEC filing system is offline a week before the election.

  • Asia-Pacific

    Solidigm has made its $45 billion US plant conditional on an equipment licence for Dalian. In Taiwan, the ID numbers of 1,573 candidates were accessible for 11 days because of an error by an outside contractor.

  • Sub-Saharan Africa

    Tanzania announced a 223 billion cubic feet gas discovery at Mnazi Bay; operator Maurel & Prom put the volume at about 200 billion cubic feet. Botswana is shifting fuel supply from the South African route to Matola and Walvis Bay and is in talks with Dangote.

  • South Asia

    Japan pledged a 46 billion yen loan to Bangladesh, and the two countries highlighted Bangladesh's first economic partnership agreement. Pakistan has tied its AI transformation to a partnership with Alibaba. India's foreign ministry said oil purchases are made by companies according to the national interest.

IIGeopolitical reality check

Developments that move prices and decisions are separated from those that take up headlines without changing behaviour; the mainstream narrative is then tested against hard data.

Module B

Signal vs Noise

SIGNAL 67% · NOISE 33%

Converging signals

Minor apart, meaningful together

Wave

Attackers are hitting not the state's core networks but the filing layer tied to deadline calendars: election disclosures, tax returns, candidate databases and remote hiring.

Weak signals

Read together

While the critical infrastructure debate focuses on the power grid and core banking, the weak link is the public portal through which deadline-bound filings flow, and the outside contractor that runs it. This layer does damage the moment it is shut, even if the attack fails: deadlines slip, election transparency is suspended and identity data leaks into circulation. With a dense electoral calendar over the next four weeks, this surface is widening.

What would disprove this

The reading weakens if the FEC and the Belgian finance ministry restore their services within seven days, investigations show the attacks were random scanning, and no other election or tax portal goes down before 3 November.

Narrative vs data

Narrative: The Fed has held rates and will wait until December; monetary policy remains loose and dollar rates will come down.

Hard data: After the decision the US 2-year yield fell 2.5 basis points to 4.712%, but the 10-year rose 4.3 basis points to 5.036% and the 30-year 5.8 basis points to 5.363%. The 2s10s spread widened from 25 to 32 basis points. Futures cited by Rallies lifted the odds of a 9 December hike from 75% to 82% the same day; Bloomberg data cited by Yahoo Finance show about 85%. The Fed statement said economic activity was expanding at a solid pace.

Implication: The market is pricing the pause not as easing but as inflation risk deferred. As the term premium settles into the far end, financing conditions tighten even with the Fed holding the policy rate. For emerging economies that borrow in dollars at extended maturities, this is a tightening channel independent of the policy rate.

Federal Reserve — Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, 28 October 2026Rallies.ai — Longer-dated US yields rise after Fed holds ratesYahoo Finance — Fed meeting live updates: rates held steady in split vote

IIIConstraints matrix

Not what leaders want, but what financial, legal, geographic and systemic constraints force them to do. Preferences are cheap; constraints bind.

Türkiye · Treasury and CBRTTR

Constraint · The policy rate is 36%, September inflation was 29.73% and the five-year CDS stood at 258.30 basis points on 27 October. With the US 10-year yield at 5.036%, the floor for dollar borrowing at extended maturities has risen. As a diesel importer, Türkiye will see US distillate stocks running 10% below average feed into its fuel bill within 1–3 months.

Behaviour it imposes · Markets are closed on 29 October for the holiday; the first reaction comes on 30 October. The mechanism set up with Bulgaria and Romania in the Black Sea puts security coordination among littoral states front and centre while preserving the Montreux framework.

US · FedUS

Constraint · Rates at 3.75–4.00%; the vote was 10–2, with one dissent coming from the Board. The election is on 3 November and the next decision on 9 December. The statement described growth as solid, so what binds the pause is not growth but information and timing.

Behaviour it imposes · It wants more data and is leaving the decision until after the election. The price is that the far end of the curve prices inflation risk on its own: the 30-year yield rose to 5.363%.

Canada · Bank of Canada

Constraint · The bank says inflation has hovered around 3% since April and could reach about 3.5% by year-end; the return to target has slipped to mid-2028. US tariffs will slow growth in the fourth quarter.

Behaviour it imposes · It raised rates by 25 basis points to stop energy prices spreading into other components. Moving early bought credibility at the far end: the 10-year yield rose only 2.4 basis points.

Iran · Foreign Ministry and General StaffIR

Constraint · Crude exports are close to zero under the US blockade; Axios reports that energy infrastructure and nuclear facilities are on the US and Israeli target list. Tehran found the proposals relayed by Qatar unacceptable.

Behaviour it imposes · It keeps diplomacy open but offers no counter-proposal to the draft. Bloomberg says attacks on shipping approached 30 in October; Tehran is applying pressure through the sea lanes.

EU · CommissionEU

Constraint · The REPowerEU regulation bans Russian LNG from early 2027 and pipeline gas from autumn 2027. Belgium's finance ministry portal has been down since the 28 October attack, with a filing deadline on 31 October.

Behaviour it imposes · Responding to reports that Nord Stream could be restarted with a US investor, it said there will be no return to Russian gas even if the war ends. By binding energy dependence to a legal commitment, it closes the space for bargaining.

China · Ministry of CommerceCN

Constraint · The suspension of rare-earth export controls expires on 10 November; a statement says it will be extended, but no numbered text amending Announcement No. 70 could be found. In Washington, the extension text for the affiliates rule suspension has not been published either.

Behaviour it imposes · It extends the truce verbally while leaving the legal basis open. In both capitals the licence is becoming a bargaining chip; Solidigm's Dalian licence may be the first case.

What the matrix says

What the six actors share is a near-term decision paid for with a deferred cost. The Fed is waiting before the election, and the bill shows up in yields at the far end. Canada hiked early and calmed the back of its curve. Iran keeps diplomacy open while using the sea lanes as leverage. Brussels and Beijing manage the bargaining through legal texts, or through their absence. Türkiye has deferred its reaction to 30 October because of the holiday, by which time the floor on its external financing costs will already have risen.

Module A

Constraints Matrix

STRUCTURAL AVG 4.0 · TACTICAL AVG 2.0Structural constraints dominate: the outcome is set more by these limits than by the actors' preferences.

Hard structural constraintspersistent · beyond the actors' will

  • Hormuz blockade regime · Iran

    5/5

    On 28 October NAVCENT asked ships with no need to transit to stay clear of the area; the blockade applies to every vessel regardless of flag, and Iranian attacks on shipping approached 30 in October.

  • The Fed's timing constraint · United States

    4/5

    The election is on 3 November and the next decision on 9 December; the Fed statement described growth as solid and said it wanted more data. The pause is bound by the calendar, not by growth.

  • Diesel buffer

    4/5

    US distillate stocks stood at 102.8 million barrels in the week to 23 October, 10% below the five-year average; gasoline stocks rose 3.9 million barrels the same week.

  • Export licensing regime · China

    3/5

    The suspension of the BIS affiliates rule ends on 9 November and as of 28 October there is no extension text; Korean fabs must seek a new licence every year for equipment going to China.

Tactical frictiontemporary · eases over time

  • Brent contract roll days

    2/5

    The December contract expires on 30 October; when the continuous series rolls into January, the headline price will drop by roughly $4.60 without anything changing in the market.

  • Türkiye's public holiday days

    2/5

    Domestic markets are closed on 29 October; the Fed and ECB decisions will be priced together, all at once, on 30 October.

  • Public portal outages weeks

    2/5

    The FEC filing system has been down since 26 October and Belgium's tax portal since 28 October; legal deadlines and election transparency are being managed through postponement.

IVBeyond the Atlantic view: blind spots

Points that Western analysis overlooks, attributed by author and institution. State media is flagged every time.

  1. 1

    Seen from Karachi, Gulf security rests on non-aggression pledges, not alliances

    Dawn — editorial · 28 October 2026

    In its 28 October editorial, Dawn treats the 26 October meeting in Tehran between Pakistani, Saudi and Turkish officials and their Iranian counterparts as globally significant. The paper places two fears behind the meeting: a renewed US or Israeli strike on Iran, and Iranian retaliation in the Gulf. It proposes a three-step sequence: a ceasefire in Yemen, joint opposition to attacks on any regional state, and a refusal to let territory be used by outside actors for strikes. While Washington discusses target lists, this reading locates the Gulf's real supply risk in the direction of retaliation.

    Note: The editorial does not discuss how a non-aggression pledge would be verified, or how Gulf states that host US bases would comply with it.

    dawn.com
  2. 2

    Seen from Pretoria, criminalising miners weakens critical mineral security

    Titilope F. Ajayi, Oluwole Ojewale, Institute for Security Studies (ISS Today) · 28 October 2026

    According to an ISS piece of 28 October, about 13.2 million artisanal and small-scale miners work in Africa; in 2022 the sector supplied 32–41% of the continent's gold output, and in 2017–2023 it accounted for 52–74% of global tantalum production. The authors argue that slow and costly licensing pushes miners outside the law, while criminalisation drives the trade underground, where armed groups extract protection money. While the Western critical minerals debate runs through refining and export controls, this reading looks at the governance gap at the first link of the supply chain.

    Note: The piece does not address the effect of criminalisation on global prices and traceability, or whose budget would fund its proposals.

    issafrica.org
  3. 3

    Seen from New Delhi, oil sourcing is a corporate decision, not foreign policy

    The Tribune — statement by India's Ministry of External Affairs · 28 October 2026

    According to The Tribune, India's foreign ministry spokesperson said on 28 October that energy purchases are made by companies according to the national interest. The statement followed a domestic political row over a warning from former Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla that cutting off Russian oil would create a serious energy problem; Shringla says Russian oil made up about half of imports in 2023–2025. By shifting the sourcing choice from the state to companies, New Delhi keeps both its trade negotiation with Washington and its tie with Moscow open.

    Note: The statement gives no current volume for Russian oil purchases; sources on October flows offer widely differing figures.

    tribuneindia.com

VProbabilistic scenarios and asset-class implications

No firm forecasts are given. Percentages are calibrated judgement, not measurement. Competing explanations are set side by side.

  • H1Squeeze at both ends

    50%
    Trigger
    The US 10-year yield stays above 5%, the January–February Brent spread holds above $3 after the roll, and talks with Iran remain inconclusive but open.
    Impact
    The Fed moves towards a December hike and oil scarcity persists at the front; financing conditions for energy importers tighten independently of policy rates.
    Market transmission
    US yields at the far end stay high and the Brent curve keeps its backwardated structure; middle distillate margins and the CDS of energy-importing emerging markets remain under pressure.

  • H2Round of strikes

    30%
    Trigger
    The US and Israel strike Iran's energy and nuclear facilities; Iranian retaliation reaches Gulf refineries or merchant ships in the Strait of Hormuz.
    Impact
    The front-month price jumps and the diesel buffer thins further; the inflation premium embeds more firmly at the far end of the curve.
    Market transmission
    Front-month Brent and war-risk insurance premiums rise, US yields at the far end and emerging-market credit spreads widen; demand for gold strengthens.

  • H3Diplomatic thaw

    20%
    Trigger
    Qatari mediation advances with a counter-proposal, NAVCENT eases its advisory and the US 10-year yield falls durably below 5%.
    Impact
    The scarcity premium drains from the front of the curve and the Fed may opt to hold in December; financing conditions ease.
    Market transmission
    The Brent spread narrows and yields at the far end retreat; CDS and currency pressure ease for energy-importing countries.

Percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements.

Module C

Asset-Class and Positioning Implications

Asset classExposureTransmission channelH1H2H3ExpectedConvictionHorizonWhat to watch
Sovereign debtPrices of extended-maturity US TreasuriesThe term premium is settling into the far end; even with the Fed holding the policy rate, distant maturities are pricing inflation risk.−−−+−0.90●●●0–3 monthsThe 5% threshold on the US 10-year yield and the 2s10s spread
CommoditiesGap between front-month and 12-month BrentScarcity sits in today's barrel; the front-month premium persists even though the roll lowers the headline price.+++−−+0.70●●●0–3 monthsThe January–February Brent spread after 30 October
CommoditiesMiddle distillates (diesel)US distillate stocks are 10% below average; there is a buffer in gasoline but none in diesel.++++−+1.40●●●0–3 monthsWeekly EIA distillate stocks and the ICE gasoil contract
CreditSovereign credit of energy-importing emerging marketsDollar yields at the far end and the energy bill are rising together; financing conditions tighten independently of policy rates.−−−+−0.90●●●3–12 monthsTürkiye and Egypt five-year CDS
Freight & insuranceGulf tanker war-risk premiumThe NAVCENT advisory and nearly 30 ship attacks in October are lengthening voyages and raising insurance costs.+++−−+0.70●●●0–3 monthsJMIC threat level and Gulf tanker freight rates

How to read: ++ strong structural support · + support · 0 neutral · − pressure · −− strong pressure. “Expected” is the direction weighted by scenario probabilities. H1: Squeeze at both ends · H2: Round of strikes · H3: Diplomatic thaw.

General, scenario-conditional analysis at asset-class level. It contains no specific security, price target or trade timing and is not personalised investment advice (Turkish Capital Markets Law No. 6362).

Annex 1Türkiye dashboard

Policy rate
36.00%
Cut from 37% on 22 October; the December step depends on dollar yields at the far end and the energy bill.
CPI year on year (Sep)
29.73%
October data due on 3 November; the thinning diesel buffer is an upside risk through the fuel component.
Türkiye 5-year CDS
258.30 bp
27 October; 260.68 on 26 October. The first post-Fed reading comes on 30 October.
Türkiye 10-year bond
33.03%
28 October, half-day session; 32.99% on 27 October.
USD/TRY
49.787
ECB reference rate for 27 October; 49.763 on 26 October. The managed depreciation continues.
EUR/TRY
55.5126
ECB reference rate for 27 October; with EUR/USD down to 1.115, pressure on the basket eased.
Net reserves excluding swaps
$39.34 bn
Week of 16 October; no more recent figure was verified for this issue.
US 10-year yield
5.036%
28 October, after the Fed; the floor for dollar borrowing at extended maturities.
Ship attacks in Bulgarian EEZ
5
From early October to 28 October; a trilateral coordination mechanism was set up in Sofia the same day.

·Methodological transparency: what this issue does not know

Unverified items

  • The 28 October settlement for December Brent: $115.32 comes from a 17:54 snapshot of Investing's contract page; the CNBC page would not load, and Mitrade gives an intraday $115.29.
  • The identity of the energy facilities on the US and Israeli target list and the timing of any strike have not been disclosed; whether the Qatari draft was formally submitted could not be verified.
  • The perpetrators and methods of the attacks on the FEC and Belgium's finance ministry, and whether data were accessed, have not been disclosed; the report that the FEC system came back after about 41 hours rests on a single source.
  • The number of ships permitted to leave the Sea of Azov rests on a single Reuters report; the figure of 23 unsanctioned organisations behind Rassvet is solely the assessment of HUR, Ukraine's military intelligence.
  • The numbered announcement extending China's rare-earth suspension to 10 January 2027 could not be found; the US Commerce Department's response to Solidigm's request for a Dalian licence is unknown.
  • The volume, duration and price of the Botswana–Dangote talks have not been disclosed.

Conflicting sources (both reported)

  • Rallies writes that the Fed statement upgraded its description of the economy from solid to strong; WealthManagement says the stronger wording was already in the previous statement. The odds of a December hike are 82% at Rallies and about 85% in Bloomberg data.
  • The Bank of Canada's year-end inflation projection is about 3.5% in the bank's own statement and 3.4% in The Logic.
  • Axios on 28 October lists energy infrastructure among the targets without distinction; the NYT wrote on 21–22 October that refineries and oil infrastructure would be kept off the list.
  • EIA crude imports: the Oil & Gas Journal reports gross +616,000 barrels a day, Reuters net −796,000 barrels a day; Kpler says the EIA is overestimating exports by about 1 million barrels a day.
  • Tanzania's government announced the discovery at 223 billion cubic feet; operator Maurel & Prom gives an unclassified figure of about 200 billion cubic feet.
  • Taiwan's small-party alliance says the ID data remained accessible for 11 days; the election commission maintains the numbers were stored with corrupted characters and were not publicly visible.
  • Two BTA reports give different positions for where CONTSHIP JET was hit: 21 nautical miles south-east of Shabla and 17 nautical miles east of Kaliakra.

Stale data warning

  • Net reserves excluding swaps of $39.34 billion refer to the week of 16 October; no more recent figure was verified.
  • USD/TRY and EUR/TRY are ECB reference rates for 27 October; Turkish markets traded a half day on 28 October and are closed on 29 October.
  • Türkiye and Egypt five-year CDS readings are for 27 October; the first post-Fed readings come on 30 October.

Scenario percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements. State media sources are flagged separately. This issue is for information only and is not investment advice. Production process and rules: methodology · source universe · Track record

Principal sources

  1. Federal Reserve — Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement, 28 October 2026
  2. Bank of Canada — Bank of Canada raises policy rate to 2.5%
  3. Rallies.ai — Longer-dated US yields rise after Fed holds rates
  4. Mitrade — Brent's $115 front month sits $4.6 above January
  5. Commodity Board — Oil curve turns steep backwardation
  6. Oil & Gas Journal — EIA: US crude oil inventories down 1.9 million bbl
  7. Transport Topics (Bloomberg) — U.S. tells ships to avoid unnecessary transits through Hormuz
  8. APA (Axios) — US, Israel may target Iran's leaders, energy sites
  9. The Next Web — US Federal Election Commission filing system offline
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