Talay Daily Brief
Long end at 1993 high, Türkiye's short-term yields overtake the policy rate, deals deferred to January
25 September 2026, Friday · Talay Insight editorial desk · 6 core sources
IExecutive summary and market impact
On 24 September the US 7-year auction closed at 5.085%, the highest yield since April 1993, with indirect demand 7 points below average; the 30-year yield rose to 5.47%. The same day in Türkiye the 2-year yield, at 37.09%, overtook the 37% policy rate, the BIST 100 fell 2.74% and the CBRT's net reserves were reported to have dropped by 6.41 billion dollars in a week. Brent futures closed 3.4% higher at 106.60 dollars after the Houthis fired missiles at Yanbu. The Xi–Trump summit ended without a joint statement; the tariff truce was extended only to 10 January.
The day's main event took place in the advanced-economy bond market. On 24 September the US Treasury sold 44 billion dollars of 7-year notes at 5.085%, the highest yield since April 1993. The tail was small at 0.7 basis points, but the bid-to-cover ratio fell from 2.50 to 2.42 and indirect participation, at 57.2%, was 7 points below the 64.6% average of recent auctions. This was the second weak auction in two days, following the 5-year sale on 23 September (5.033%, indirect participation 54.31%). On the Treasury's par curve the 10-year yield rose to 5.18% and the 30-year to 5.47%. New York Fed President Williams said one more hike by year-end was reasonable; according to FedWatch data cited by CNBC, the probability of a hike on 28 October is 77.5%.
The move is global. In Germany the Ifo business climate index rose to 89.9, its highest since May 2023, and the 10-year Bund yield reached 3.60%, its peak since mid-2009. The France–Germany spread widened from 102 basis points to around 112 in two days. Norges Bank raised its rate to 4.50% and the Riksbank signalled a hike this year; Switzerland held at 0% and Mexico at 6.50%. Argentina's country risk rose from 400 basis points at the end of July to 566 on 23 September.
Türkiye entered this wave on 24 September with three data points: the 2-year yield rose from 36.43% to 37.09%, overtaking the policy rate; the BIST 100 fell 2.74% to 12,888.33 points; and according to CBRT data, net reserves fell by 6.41 billion dollars in the week of 18 September to 55.84 billion dollars, with gross reserves down to 174.4 billion dollars. The market's estimate of 174.5 billion dollars in gross reserves on 23 September was largely confirmed by the official data. Diesel was cut by about 5.5 lira on 24 September, then raised by 2.55 lira on 25 September to 93.45 lira in Istanbul. The EBRD cut its 2026 growth forecast for Türkiye from 3.5% to 3%.
On the energy and geopolitical front, on 24 September the Houthis fired 6 ballistic missiles at Yanbu, the export terminal of Saudi Arabia's reopened East-West pipeline, and at Taif; the Saudi-led coalition said all were intercepted. Brent futures closed 3.4% higher at 106.60 dollars. Ten commodity vessels transited the Strait of Hormuz on 23 September; Kpler's 22 September figure was revised from 3 to 7. Iran presented the US with a roadmap including a 60-day regional ceasefire and a phased reopening of Hormuz. In Washington the Xi–Trump summit ended without a joint statement; the truce was extended to 10 January, and no decision was announced on chip controls or the Taiwan package.
48-hour catalyst calendar
Time (TRT, UTC+3)Event and threshold to watch
- 25 Sep 15:30 TRTUS August durable goods orders; strong data could push the October hike probability (77.5%) and long-end yields higher again.
- 25 SepArgentina's 803 million dollar payment to the IMF; the Treasury's foreign-currency deposits fell from 2.341 billion to 1.538 billion dollars, country risk at 566 basis points.
- 28–29 SepExpiry of the 4–5 days Iran gave the US to respond to its roadmap for a 60-day ceasefire and a phased reopening of Hormuz.
- 1 Oct 14:30 TRTCBRT weekly reserve data; another fall of more than 5 billion dollars from 55.84 billion would confirm the cost of defending the lira.
- 28 OctFOMC decision; FedWatch puts the probability of a hike in the 70–78% range. The Fed funds rate has been 3.75–4.00% since 16 September.
- 3 NovUS midterm elections; seen as decisive for the timing of a Hormuz deal with Iran.
- 12 DecExpiry of the India–Bangladesh Ganges water-sharing treaty; Dhaka wants a new agreement with dry-season guarantees.
- 10 Jan 2027New end date of the US–China tariff truce and the date to which China's restrictions on 7 additional rare earth metals were deferred.
Implications
- Global tightening is shifting from policy rates to the term premium: the US 30-year yield rose 7 basis points in a day to 5.47%, the German 10-year to 3.60% and the Japanese 30-year to 4.164%, while the VIX volatility index stayed at 15.67.
- In Türkiye the market is pricing the CBRT's next step ahead of the rate decision: the 2-year yield is above the policy rate, net reserves stand at 55.84 billion dollars, net reserves excluding swaps at 43.1 billion dollars, and USD/TRY at 48.87.
- Major bargains are advancing through time-limited deferrals rather than lasting agreements: the US–China truce slipped to 10 January and China's restrictions on 7 additional rare earths to 10 January 2027; Iran gave the US 4–5 days to respond to a 60-day ceasefire roadmap.
·The day across five pillars
- Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood
CBRT net reserves fell by 6.41 billion dollars in the week of 18 September to 55.84 billion dollars; net reserves excluding swaps stand at 43.1 billion dollars. The 2-year yield, at 37.09%, overtook the policy rate, and the BIST 100 fell 2.74%. Erdoğan said Ankara expects concrete steps from the US on the F-35.
- Middle East and North Africa
The Houthi missile strike on Yanbu has made the export terminal of the East-West pipeline, reopened at low throughput on 22 September, a target. Ten ships transited Hormuz on 23 September. The 4–5 days Iran gave the US expire around 28–29 September.
- Eurasia
Krasnodar declared a state of emergency on 23 September; about 90% of grain export capacity is out of action. Russia's 2027 draft budget projects a deficit of 2–2.2% of GDP and introduces new taxes.
- Europe
Ifo at 89.9, its highest since May 2023; the 10-year Bund at 3.60%. Norway raised its rate to 4.50%, Sweden signalled a hike, and Switzerland held at 0% as the franc weakened.
- Asia-Pacific
The Xi–Trump summit ended without a joint statement. China's restrictions on 7 additional rare earth metals were deferred to 10 January 2027; no decision was announced on the 14 billion dollar Taiwan arms package.
- South Asia
Pakistan struck 10 locations in Afghanistan on 24 September; Kabul vowed to retaliate. In India the Sensex fell 1,247.71 points and the rupee approached the 96 threshold. Bangladesh wants a new, guaranteed text for the Ganges treaty expiring on 12 December.
- Sub-Saharan Africa
In Ethiopia the conflict spread to Afar and Amhara; the army said it killed 272 TPLF fighters, a figure that could not be verified. The same day Ethiopia and Djibouti broke ground on a fuel pipeline.
- Americas
Banxico held its rate at 6.50%. Argentina's country risk rose to 566 basis points; the country is due to pay 803 million dollars to the IMF on 25 September.
IIGeopolitical reality check
Developments that move prices and decisions are separated from those that take up headlines without changing behaviour; the mainstream narrative is then tested against hard data.
Module B
Signal vs Noise
SIGNAL 60% · NOISE 40%
- SIGNAL
Foreign demand for extended-maturity dollar borrowing is weakening
Indirect participation at the 7-year auction was 57.2% against a recent average of 64.6%; 54.31% at the 5-year.
Data: US 30-year yield ›investingLive — 7-year auction at 5.085%
- SIGNAL
Short-term rates in Türkiye have overtaken the policy rate
The 2-year yield was 37.09% on 24 September; the policy rate is 37%. Net reserves weekly −6.41 billion dollars.
Data: Türkiye 10-year yield ›Investing.com — Türkiye 2-year yield
- SIGNAL
The outlet of the reopened Saudi pipeline is a target
The Houthis fired 6 ballistic missiles at Yanbu and Taif on 24 September; Brent futures rose 3.4% to 106.60 dollars.
Data: Brent crude oil (futures) ›Al Jazeera — Coalition shot down 6 ballistic missiles
- NOISE
A low VIX shows there is no stress in the market
The VIX was 15.67 on 24 September; the same day the US 30-year yield rose 7 basis points. Stress is building in the debt market.
Data: VIX volatility index ›Yahoo Finance — Market day, 24 September
- NOISE
Transits through Hormuz are rising fast
Ten ships transited on 23 September, but this is Kpler preliminary data; the 10-day average is 15–17, far below the 40-ship threshold.
Data: Strait of Hormuz transits ›MarineLink — Hormuz traffic below average
Converging signals
Minor apart, meaningful together
Wave
Time-limited deferrals instead of lasting agreements: the risks are not going away but piling up on a handful of dates between November and January.
Weak signals
The US–China tariff truce was extended by only two months rather than a year; the new end date is 10 January, and China's restrictions on 7 additional rare earth metals were deferred to the same date.
24/09 · No joint statement at Xi–Trump summit: tariff truce extended by just 2 months from 10 November to 10 January, no new decisions on chips or rare earthsThe roadmap Iran presented to the US proposes not a lasting peace but a 60-day regional ceasefire and a phased reopening of Hormuz; 4–5 days were given for a response.
24/09 · Iran presents the US with a roadmap for a 60-day regional ceasefire and phased reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; Rezaei gives Washington 4–5 daysRussia and the US showed interest in a limited ceasefire covering grain and energy infrastructure; 90% of grain export capacity in Krasnodar is out of action.
23/09 · Russia's Krasnodar region declares a state of emergency over attacks on Black Sea ports: 90% of grain export capacity was knocked out in AugustRather than extend the 1996 Ganges treaty expiring on 12 December, Bangladesh wants a new text with dry-season guarantees; less than three months remain for negotiation.
24/09 · Bangladesh seeks a new agreement with a dry-season guarantee instead of extending the 1996 Ganges Water Sharing Treaty, which expires on 12 DecemberRussia extended its petrol export ban to 31 January 2027; the domestic fuel shortage is also being managed with time-limited administrative measures.
The Moscow Times — Russian regions slowly reimpose fuel purchase limits amid ongoing refinery attacks
Read together
Viewed one by one, each deferral looks like a step that eases tension. Read together, they show that risk is not being spread over time but compressed into a specific window: the proposed 60-day Iran ceasefire runs to late November, the US midterms fall on 3 November, the Ganges treaty expires on 12 December, the US–China truce and rare earth restrictions on 10 January, and the Russian petrol ban on 31 January. The market is pricing the risk premium in bond duration today; this calendar holds more than one trigger for that premium to rise again between November and January.
What would disprove this
This reading would be refuted if, before 10 January, the US and China signed a lasting package including tariff cuts and the lifting of rare earth restrictions, or if Iran and the US concluded a Hormuz agreement with no time limit.
Narrative vs data
Narrative: Strong growth data is good news: PMI and Ifo are rising, equities are calm, the volatility index is low; the economy is weathering the energy shock.
Hard data: The US flash composite PMI rose to 58.4 on 23 September and Ifo to 89.9 on 24 September. Over the same two days the US 5- and 7-year auctions closed at 5.033% and 5.085%, with indirect participation of 54.31% and 57.2%; the 30-year yield rose from 5.40% on 23 September to 5.47% on 24 September and the 10-year Bund to 3.60%. The S&P 500 ended 24 September flat, down 0.02%, while the VIX stayed at 15.67. According to FedWatch, the probability of an October hike is 77.5%.
Implication: With the energy shock still under way, strong data means central banks will prolong tightening, and investors are demanding higher compensation for duration. The stress is visible not in equity volatility but in bond auctions; for economies with large external financing needs, this is where the real cost comes from.
investingLive — US Treasury sells 44 billion dollars of 7-year notes at a high yield of 5.085%ifo — Business climate, September 2026Yahoo Finance — Market day, 24 September
IIIConstraints matrix
Not what leaders want, but what financial, legal, geographic and systemic constraints force them to do. Preferences are cheap; constraints bind.
Türkiye · CBRT and TreasuryTR
Constraint · Net reserves fell by 6.41 billion dollars in the week of 18 September to 55.84 billion dollars, and net reserves excluding swaps to 43.1 billion dollars. 51% of the central government debt stock is in foreign currency; the 2-year yield, at 37.09%, is above the 37% policy rate.
Behaviour it imposes · A tendency to tighten liquidity without touching the policy rate and to keep the lira under control with reserves; if reserve losses continue, a rate move comes onto the agenda.
US · Fed and TreasuryUS
Constraint · Fed funds rate at 3.75–4.00%; October hike probability 70–78%. The Treasury had to borrow 114 billion dollars in two days through 5- and 7-year auctions despite weak foreign demand.
Behaviour it imposes · Continuing to tighten to anchor inflation expectations; the auction calendar is unchanged even as yields rise.
China · Xi administrationCN
Constraint · The average US tariff on Chinese goods is 36.5%; agricultural purchases are running at about 6.7 billion dollars a year, less than half of the 17 billion dollar commitment.
Behaviour it imposes · Buying time through short extensions without making lasting concessions; keeping the rare earth restrictions in hand as a deferred card.
Iran · Tehran leadershipIR
Constraint · Hormuz transits are around 10 ships a day; the UAE barred 8 branches of Bank Melli Iran from foreign-trade transactions and financing channels are narrowing.
Behaviour it imposes · Preserving bargaining power through time-limited offers and conditions: a 60-day ceasefire roadmap and a 4–5 day deadline for the US.
Russia · Kremlin and Finance MinistryRU
Constraint · More than 45% of refining capacity and about 90% of grain export capacity in Krasnodar are out of action; the 2026 deficit is expected to rise to 3% of GDP.
Behaviour it imposes · Shifting war financing onto the domestic tax base and keeping the Türkiye and US channels open for a grain–energy ceasefire.
Saudi Arabia · Aramco and the coalitionSA
Constraint · The East-West pipeline reopened at low throughput on 22 September and full capacity will take weeks; its export terminal, Yanbu, was targeted by Houthi missiles on 24 September.
Behaviour it imposes · Priority on protecting the Red Sea outlet with air defence and sustaining exports that bypass Hormuz.
What the matrix says
The matrix shows a squeeze on two separate timescales. In the near term (days to weeks) the decisive factor is the base rate: the Fed's October move and demand at US auctions feed directly into the pressure on Türkiye's reserves and yield curve. Over the medium term (months) all the major actors are choosing time-limited deferral over lasting decisions: China and the US to 10 January, Iran to a 60-day ceasefire, Russia to a limited grain–energy ceasefire. These deferrals do not reduce today's risk; they stack it on specific dates.
Module A
Constraints Matrix
STRUCTURAL AVG 4.0 · TACTICAL AVG 3.0Structural constraints dominate: the outcome is set more by these limits than by the actors' preferences.
Hard structural constraintspersistent · beyond the actors' will
Hormuz constraint · Iran
5/5Ten commodity vessels transited on 23 September; reopening the strait depends on the Iran–US roadmap.
Türkiye's reserve buffer · Türkiye
4/5Net reserves at 55.84 billion dollars, 43.1 billion excluding swaps; a weekly loss rate of 6.41 billion dollars limits how long the lira can be defended.
The Fed's tightening path · United States
4/5Rate at 3.75–4.00%; October hike probability 70–78%; the New York Fed President considers one more hike by year-end reasonable.
Rare earth card · China
3/5China's restrictions on 7 additional metals were deferred to 10 January 2027, not cancelled.
Tactical frictiontemporary · eases over time
Threat to the Red Sea outlet weeks
4/5The Houthis fired ballistic missiles at Yanbu; the export terminal of the reopened pipeline is in the crosshairs.
Weak auction demand days
3/5Indirect participation at the US 5- and 7-year auctions was 54.31% and 57.2%; the average is 64.6%.
Data revisions days
2/5Kpler's preliminary Hormuz data is revised by up to double the next day; daily readings can mislead.
IVBeyond the Atlantic view: blind spots
Points that Western analysis overlooks, attributed by author and institution. State media is flagged every time.
- 1
The Hague Indus ruling was won in law but will be hard to enforce on the ground
Mian Ahmad Naeem Salik, Institute of Strategic Studies Islamabad (ISSI) · 21 September 2026
According to the Islamabad institute's brief, the Court of Arbitration ruled unanimously on 31 August that the Indus Waters Treaty remains in force and that India's unilateral suspension is invalid. The author stresses that Pakistan's legal footing has strengthened but that there is no enforcement mechanism, and that the real contest will continue over the 850 MW Ratle project and data sharing. In the West, South Asian water tensions are mostly a secondary headline; this reading shows that water treaties are being tested simultaneously on the India–Pakistan and India–Bangladesh axes.
Note: A government-funded institute close to Pakistan's official position. India does not recognise the ruling.
issi.org.pk - 2
The new US sanctions law targets third countries more than Russia
Ivan Timofeev, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) · 22 September 2026
According to the Moscow-based council's analysis, the new US Russia sanctions law largely turns existing executive orders into statute; the real innovations are a 100% secondary tariff and sanctions on financial messaging. In the author's view the burden shifts to third countries buying Russian energy, with India the first test. While the West reads the law as a pressure tool against Russia, this interpretation suggests the real cost may fall on countries buying Russian oil, and hence on energy importers such as Türkiye.
Note: A council co-founded by Russia's foreign and education ministries; close to Moscow's position.
russiancouncil.ru - 3
Beijing's summit expectation: not concessions but a strategic stability framework
Global Times (editorial) · 25 September 2026state media
The editorial in Chinese state media says it expected the summit to endorse a constructive strategic stability framework rather than concrete concessions, and proposes keeping competition limited and healthy. It highlights that as of July 2026 there were more than 84,000 US-invested companies in China and that 92% of companies in a US–China Business Council survey were profitable in 2025. The text does not mention tariffs, export controls or Taiwan; that silence explains why Beijing found a two-month extension acceptable.
Note: State media editorial; the figures have not been independently verified.
globaltimes.cn - 4
Does China's trade surplus crowd others out? Beijing's answer
Global Times (editorial) · 22 September 2026state media
The editorial acknowledges that China's trade surplus has exceeded 100 billion dollars for four consecutive months as of August, but attributes it to high consumption, low saving and large budget deficits in the US and Europe; it rejects the overcapacity thesis and advocates openness over protectionism. Combined with today's bond market picture, this reading is striking: the savings of surplus countries used to feed demand for the bonds of deficit countries. The drop in indirect demand at US auctions below average suggests this balance is loosening.
Note: State media editorial; the link between indirect demand and Chinese savings is our own inference.
globaltimes.cn
VProbabilistic scenarios and asset-class implications
No firm forecasts are given. Percentages are calibrated judgement, not measurement. Competing explanations are set side by side.
H1Term premium stays high, deferrals continue
50%- Trigger
- The Fed hikes on 28 October and indirect demand at US auctions stays weak; time-limited extensions continue on the Iran and China files.
- Impact
- The US 30-year yield approaches 5.5%, the CBRT tightens liquidity, Hormuz transits stay low.
- Market transmission
- Extended-maturity bond yields stay high; the dollar is strong; in Türkiye near-term lira yields stay above the policy rate, oil in the 100–110 dollar range.
H2Hormuz reopens, rate pressure eases
30%- Trigger
- The US accepts Iran's 60-day ceasefire roadmap and Hormuz reopens in phases; the run of strong data weakens.
- Impact
- Brent falls below 100 dollars, inflation expectations decline, the probability of further Fed hikes diminishes.
- Market transmission
- Oil and freight retreat; US yields return below 5%; lira assets and Türkiye CDS find relief.
H3Double break
20%- Trigger
- The Iran deadline passes unanswered and a second wave of attacks hits the Red Sea; the US 30-year yield exceeds 5.5%.
- Impact
- Oil and long-end rates rise together; reserve and currency pressure intensifies in emerging markets.
- Market transmission
- Brent rises above 110 dollars, the dollar strengthens, Türkiye CDS exceeds 250 basis points, volatility indices jump.
Percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements.
Module C
Asset-Class and Positioning Implications
| Asset class | Exposure | Transmission channel | H1 | H2 | H3 | Expected | Conviction | Horizon | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign debt | US extended-maturity Treasury yields | Term premium and auction demand | ++ | −− | ++ | +0.80 | ●●● | 0–3 months | The 5.5% threshold on the 30-year yield and indirect participation at auctions |
| Sovereign debt | Front end of the lira government bond curve | Reserve pressure and non-rate tightening | − | + | −− | −0.60 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Position of the 2-year yield relative to the 37% policy rate |
| Commodities | Crude oil curve | Hormuz and the Red Sea outlet | + | −− | ++ | +0.30 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Daily Hormuz transit count and the US response to the Iran deadline |
| FX | USD/TRY | Strong dollar and reserve use | + | − | ++ | +0.60 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Weekly net reserves and the 50 level on the exchange rate |
| Credit | Emerging-market sovereign credit spreads | Global base rate and the dollar | + | − | ++ | +0.60 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Türkiye CDS against 250 and Argentine country risk against 566 basis points |
| Freight & insurance | Red Sea and Gulf tanker freight | Attacks targeting Yanbu and Hormuz | + | −− | ++ | +0.30 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Loadings from Yanbu and the war risk premium |
Annex 1Türkiye dashboard
IndicatorLatestReading
- Policy rate
- 37.00%
- Held on 10 September; overnight lending 40%, borrowing 35.5%.
- 2-year yield
- 37.09%
- Rose on 24 September from 36.43% on 23 September, overtaking the policy rate.
- 10-year yield
- 32.64%
- 24 September; 32.52% on 23 September.
- USD/TRY
- 48.87
- 24 September; in the 48.82–48.84 record zone of 22–23 September.
- 5-year CDS
- 240.86 bp
- 23 September; 232.80 on 18 September. Below the 250 threshold.
- Gross reserves
- $174.4 billion
- Week of 18 September, weekly change −4.32 billion dollars.
- Net reserves
- $55.84 billion
- Weekly −6.41 billion dollars; below 60 billion dollars for the first time since the end of July.
- Net reserves excluding swaps
- $43.1 billion
- Weekly −6.8 billion dollars.
- CPI (August, annual)
- 31.51%
- OECD 2026 inflation forecast 31.5%.
- BIST 100
- 12,888.33
- Down 2.74% on 24 September; banks −3.06%.
- Diesel (Istanbul, European side)
- 93.45 lira
- Effective 25 September, a 2.55 lira increase; a cut of about 5.5 lira had been made the day before.
- Unemployment (July)
- 8.1%
- Seasonally adjusted, up 0.5 points; August data not yet available.
- 2026 growth forecast
- 2.7–3.0%
- OECD 2.7% (23 September), EBRD 3% (24 September).
Annex 2 · Reading recommendation
Trade Wars Are Class Wars: How Rising Inequality Distorts the Global Economy and Threatens International Peace
Matthew C. Klein, Michael Pettis · Yale University Press, 2020 · yalebooks.yale.edu
Summary · Economics journalist Klein and finance professor Pettis read trade surpluses and deficits not as the result of competition between countries but of income distribution and saving–consumption choices within them. According to the book, the suppression of household income in surplus economies such as China and Germany pushes savings abroad, where they are matched by debt and deficits in the US. The authors treat trade wars as the external reflection of these internal imbalances.
Why it matters · It makes it possible to read, within a single framework, why the Xi–Trump summit could produce only a two-month extension and why foreign demand at US Treasury auctions has weakened: it explains the link between the savings of surplus countries and the borrowing costs of the deficit country.
·Methodological transparency: what this issue does not know
Unverified items
- How much of the CBRT's reserve loss stems directly from foreign-exchange sales has not been officially disclosed.
- The Ethiopian army's claim to have killed 272 TPLF fighters could not be independently verified.
- The full wording of Xi's remark on Taiwan and the figure of 140 aircraft for Boeing could not be verified from a primary source.
- Türkiye's 5-year CDS close for 24 September was not available in the sources accessed; the latest value is from 23 September.
- Whether the Houthi attacks caused any damage could not be verified; the coalition said all missiles were intercepted.
Conflicting sources (both reported)
- Brent futures' 24 September close ranges from 106.45 to 106.77 dollars depending on the source; the brief uses CNBC's settlement price of 106.60 dollars. Our recorded value for the 23 September close is 103.31 dollars, while investing.com and Yahoo show 103.08 dollars; the recorded value has not been changed.
- The US 10-year yield on 24 September was 5.18% on the US Treasury par curve and 5.10–5.16% in market closing data.
- The probability of an October FOMC hike ranges from 69.7% to 77.5% depending on the source.
- Kpler's Hormuz data is revised the following day: 21 September from 2 to 4, 22 September from 3 to 7. Our recorded values for 21 and 22 September are the initial preliminary figures.
- Russia's 2027 budget deficit: The Moscow Times and Meduza say 2%, Reuters 2.2%.
Stale data warning
- The unemployment rate is July 2026 data; the August figure has not yet been released.
- CPI is August 2026 data; the September figure will be released in early October.
Scenario percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements. State media sources are flagged separately. This issue is for information only and is not investment advice. Production process and rules: methodology · source universe · Track record
Principal sources
- MarketScreener — Seven-year US Treasury auction yield hits 33-year high
- CNBC — Fed's Williams: another rate hike by year-end
- Cumhuriyet — Sharp fall in CBRT reserves
- Al Jazeera — Saudi-led coalition says it shot down 6 ballistic missiles launched by Houthis
- NBC News — US and China extend trade truce
- The National — Iran and US meet in New York