Talay Daily Brief
Yields at a 2007 peak, oil back at 103 dollars, the strait tied to 7 conditions
24 September 2026, Thursday · Talay Insight editorial desk · 11 core sources
IExecutive summary and market impact
On 23 September the US 10-year yield rose 13 basis points to 5.10%, its highest since June 2007. There were two triggers: a flash composite PMI that jumped to 58.4 and a 70 billion dollar 5-year auction that cleared at 5.033% with a 3.1 basis point tail. The same day Brent futures rose 4.09% back to 103.31 dollars. Iran set out 7 conditions for opening Hormuz, and only 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September. USD/TRY set a new peak at 48.84.
The day's main break is in the US yield curve. S&P Global's flash composite PMI rose on 23 September from 56.0 in August to 58.4, its highest since July 2021; input costs rose at their steepest pace in four years. The same day the 70 billion dollar 5-year auction cleared at 5.033%, 3.1 basis points above the 5.002% at which it traded before the auction; the average tail over the last six auctions was 0.6 basis points. According to Wolf Street data, the 10-year yield rose 13 basis points to 5.10%, the 5-year 18 basis points to 5.03% and the 30-year 9 basis points to 5.39%. On CME FedWatch the probability of a hike at the 27-28 October meeting rose intraday from about 55% to 70%; Fed Governor Barr said further hikes will likely be needed.
The distribution of the move limits the interpretation. The largest rise was at the 5-year maturity where the auction took place, while the 30-year rose by about half as much. This points less to a lasting term premium shift at the long end than to policy pricing concentrated in the middle of the curve. Demand also weakened on the other side of the Atlantic: Germany received bids of 4.53 billion euros for a 5 billion euro Bobl on 22 September, and on 23 September placed only 1.65 billion of 2 billion euros of supply in the 2047 and 2056 maturities. The euro area composite PMI rose to 53.1 and the probability of an ECB hike in October rose to 48%, but the euro fell 0.3% to 1.1412 dollars in the shadow of US data, and the dollar index passed 101 for the first time since the end of July.
On oil, the easing of 22 September reversed in a day. According to Investing.com data, Brent futures closed at 99.25 dollars on 22 September and at 103.31 dollars on 23 September, up 4.09%. Iran's Supreme National Security Council secretary Rezaei said the strait will not open until conditions are met, and 7 conditions were reported to have been passed to mediators Pakistan, Qatar and Iraq; a day earlier there had been talk of 3 conditions. On the morning of 23 September the bulk carrier Cape Dao was hit by two projectiles off Musandam and 1 Indian seafarer was killed; the IMO counts 83 incidents and 23 seafarer deaths since 28 February. The Saudi East-West line restarted on 22 September but is pumping at low flow, and a return to the 4 million barrels a day target could take weeks.
The third line is Washington. Xi landed at Joint Base Andrews on the evening of 23 September (00:40 TRT on 24 September); this is the first US state visit since 2015. The summit is on 24 September; USTR Greer does not see an extension this week of the tariff truce ending on 10 November. Sources diverge on the length of an extension: in one report China wants 1 year and the United States 3-6 months. Senate Minority Leader Schumer asked for chip export controls to be kept off the table; Nvidia's 108 billion dollar third-quarter forecast assumes no data centre sales to China. The 14 billion dollar Taiwan arms package has been on hold since May.
48-hour catalyst calendar
Time (TRT, UTC+3)Event and threshold to watch
- 24 SepXi-Trump summit at the White House: welcome ceremony, bilateral meeting and state dinner. The length of the truce extension (ending 10 November), chip controls and the 14 billion dollar Taiwan package on hold will be watched.
- 24 Sep 14:30CBRT weekly reserve data; the market estimate of 174.5 billion dollars for the week of 18 September and the 13.9 billion dollar 4-week loss will be tested against official data.
- 24 Sep 17:00US August new home sales; the 30-year mortgage rate was at 7.12% on 23 September, its highest in more than two years.
- 24 Sep 20:00US 7-year note auction; at the 5-year auction indirect participation was 54.31% and the tail 3.1 basis points. A second weak auction would confirm a demand problem.
- 24 Sep 22:00Banxico rate decision; money markets price a 79% probability of a hold at 6.50%, with the dollar/peso at 17.50.
- 24 SepGerman Federal Government fourth-quarter issuance calendar update; the bid-to-cover ratio at the Bobl auction had fallen to 1.2.
- 25 Sep 15:30US August durable goods orders (advance report).
- 25 SepSecond day of Xi's Washington programme: tea meeting and National Archives visit. The same day the 3-day deadline CISA gave federal agencies for the F5 BIG-IP flaw expires.
Implications
- Tightening is now visible not only in price but in demand: at the US 5-year auction, indirect participation, which represents foreign central banks, fell to 54.31% (average 65.2%), and Germany received bids of 4.53 billion euros for a 5 billion euro Bobl.
- In Hormuz diplomacy and flows are diverging: the number of conditions rose from 3 on 22 September to 7 on 23 September, 3 vessels transited on 22 September, and 1 seafarer was killed in an attack on the Cape Dao on the morning of 23 September. Brent futures rose in a day from 99.25 to 103.31 dollars.
- Türkiye's external financing cost today comes not from the risk premium but from the base rate and the currency: CDS eased to 239.61 basis points on 22 September, but USD/TRY rose to 48.84 and, according to market calculations, CBRT gross reserves fell by 13.9 billion dollars in 4 weeks.
·The day across five pillars
- Türkiye and Its Neighbourhood
USD/TRY set a new peak at 48.84 on 23 September; according to market calculations CBRT gross reserves fell to 174.5 billion dollars in the week of 18 September. The OECD cut its 2026 growth forecast from 3.1% to 2.7% and raised its inflation forecast to 31.5%. Agreement was reached with Iraq on the gradual handover of the Bashiqa base, and Sharaa proposed legal status with parliamentary approval for the Turkish presence in Syria.
- Middle East and North Africa
Iran's 7 conditions were passed to mediators, their content not disclosed; nobody claimed the Cape Dao attack. The Saudi East-West line restarted at low flow on 22 September after the 13 September drone attack, and traders are positioning tankers in Egyptian ports for ship-to-ship transfers.
- Europe
At Germany's 22-23 September auctions the Bobl bid-to-cover ratio was 1.2 and the 2056 maturity 1.6; the German 30-year yield rose from 3.81% to 3.85%. In Cairo, Greece, the Greek Cypriot administration and Egypt decided at their 6th trilateral meeting to jointly protect Eastern Mediterranean energy infrastructure.
- Eurasia
Russia sent 161 drones at Kyiv on the morning of 23 September, killing 2; the same night fires were reported in refinery areas in Ufa and Samara, and according to the Kyiv Independent 3 of Russia's 6 largest diesel refineries cut or halted output in September. A Ukrainian captain was killed on a cargo ship hit in the Black Sea.
- Asia-Pacific
Xi is on his first US state visit in 11 years; Volexity reported that UTA0565's victims include institutions in Brunei and Japan, and that it identified 10 additional fake domains with moderate confidence.
- South Asia
The IMF mission left Sri Lanka without agreement on the seventh review, with August inflation at 8% on the oil shock. In Pakistan the review of the 7 billion dollar EFF has begun, with a tranche of about 1.2 billion dollars on the table.
- Sub-Saharan Africa
Tigrayan forces took Mekelle airport and Ethiopian Airlines halted flights to 3 cities; the Zawiya refinery in Libya stopped. Nigeria's central bank cut its rate by 350 basis points to 23%, with August inflation at 15.39%.
- Americas
The US 10-year yield is at 5.10% and the 30-year at 5.39%, its highest since July 2004; the Treasury announced a nominal 6 billion dollar buyback in 20-30 year bonds. The dollar/peso rose 1.25% to 17.50, and Banxico decides on 24 September.
IIGeopolitical reality check
Developments that move prices and decisions are separated from those that take up headlines without changing behaviour; the mainstream narrative is then tested against hard data.
Module B
Signal vs Noise
SIGNAL 60% · NOISE 40%
- SIGNAL
Foreign official demand for US debt is weakening
At the 5-year auction indirect participation fell to 54.31% (average 65.2%, previous auction 61.51%), with a bid-to-cover of 2.21; the tail was 3.1 basis points against a six-auction average of 0.6.
Data: US 10-year yield ›TFTC — 5-Year Treasury Auction Yields 5.033%, 2nd Biggest Tail Ever
- SIGNAL
In Türkiye currency defence is being paid for from reserves
According to market calculations, gross reserves fell from 188.4 billion dollars on 21 August to 174.5 billion dollars in the week of 18 September; over the same period USD/TRY broke a record at 48.84.
Data: USD/TRY ›CNBC-e — CBRT gross reserves calculated to have fallen for 4 weeks
- SIGNAL
October hike pricing has multiplied in a month
On CME FedWatch the October hike probability rose intraday on 23 September from about 55% to 70%; a month ago it was about 9%. The dollar index passed 101 for the first time since the end of July.
Data: US dollar broad index ›MarketScreener — Fed's Barr Says More Rate Hikes Likely Needed to Return Inflation to Target
- NOISE
The undersubscribed Bobl in Germany is a buyers' strike
The bid-to-cover ratio was 1.2, but the Finance Agency retained 25.3% of the increase on its own account for sale in the secondary market; this is a standard tool, and the same week cover at the 2047 maturity was 2.1.
Deutsche Finanzagentur — Bobl auction result, 22 September 2026
- NOISE
Iran raising its conditions from 3 to 7 shows a hardening position
The content of the 7 conditions was not disclosed and it is unclear whether the 3 are a subset; measurable flow has not changed, with 2-4 vessels transiting on 21 September and 3 on 22 September.
Data: Strait of Hormuz transits ›Kayhan — Rezaei: Hormuz will not reopen until Iran's conditions are met
Converging signals
Minor apart, meaningful together
Wave
Spare capacity around Hormuz is quietly eroding: pipelines, refineries and sea lanes counted as alternatives to the strait are, within the same week, either running only partially or under new risk. The problem is spreading from crude to refined products and to links outside Hormuz.
Weak signals
In Libya guards halted the Zawiya refinery of about 120,000 barrels a day on 23 September; the valve on the Sharara line has been shut since 21 September, with 130,000 barrels a day lost, about 9% of national output. It looks like a domestic dispute over pay and allegiance.
23/09 · Libya's blockade spreads to refining: guards halt the 120,000-barrel Zawiya refinery, while losses of 130,000 barrels a day continue on the Sharara lineThe Bashkortostan administration said 20 drones were downed on the night of 23 September with no damage, while monitoring sources saw fire in the Ufa refinery area. According to the Kyiv Independent, 3 of Russia's 6 largest diesel refineries cut or halted output in September.
23/09 · New drone attack on Ufa overnight on 23 September: Khabirov says 20 drones downed and no damage to industry; monitors saw fire in the refinery zoneThe Saudi East-West line restarted on 22 September, but at low flow; a return to the 4 million barrels a day target could take weeks. The news made headlines as a reopening, but when capacity will return could not be verified.
22/09 · Saudi Arabia restarted the East-West pipeline, shut by a drone attack on 13 September, at low flow on 22 September; full capacity will take weeksA cargo ship was hit in the Black Sea on the night of 23 September and its captain was killed; according to IMEAK data 226 ships have been attacked since the start of the war, 163 of them in the first 8 months of 2026. It reads like regional war news, but the Black Sea is one of the outlets for non-Hormuz supply.
23/09 · Antigua-flagged cargo ship hit in the Black Sea, Ukrainian captain killed; Erdoğan calls ship attacks unacceptable at the UN as the tally reaches 226On 22 September in Cairo, Greece, the Greek Cypriot administration and Egypt decided on joint protection and rapid joint response for gas fields and offshore energy infrastructure. A diplomatic communiqué; but the three countries are now recording Eastern Mediterranean energy infrastructure as a defence item.
22/09 · Greek, Greek Cypriot and Egyptian defence ministers agree in Cairo on joint protection of East Med energy infrastructure and rapid joint response
Read together
Taken one by one there is a Libyan labour dispute, a statement by a Russian regional governor, a low-flow pipeline, a ship in the Black Sea and a communiqué in Cairo. Read together, each of the spare links the market relied on while Hormuz was shut is partly out of action or in need of new protection. This means that even news of an opening in Hormuz may not bring the price back to its former level: as the problem shifts from crude to refined products such as diesel, the gap between benchmark Brent and the physical price stays open. The last observation of FRED's Brent spot series is 130.80 dollars on 15 September; the same week futures were in a 104-109 dollar band.
What would disprove this
All three together by mid-October: Libya's NOC announcing the Sharara valve and Zawiya refinery running again, Aramco or tanker data confirming the East-West line nearing 4 million barrels a day, and at least 2 of Russia's 3 halted large diesel refineries resuming output. Spare capacity would then have recovered and the reading fails.
Narrative vs data
Narrative: Contacts on the UN General Assembly margins and a 3-hour US-Iran meeting are bringing Hormuz closer to opening; Brent's fall below 100 dollars on 22 September was the price of this.
Hard data: Flow data say otherwise. According to Kpler, 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September, all outbound; the 10-day average is about 15, and the pre-war daily reference is between 85 and 125 depending on the source. Iran's number of conditions rose from 3 on 22 September to 7 on 23 September. On the morning of 23 September the Cape Dao was hit 2.5 nautical miles off Musandam and 1 of its 28 crew was killed; the IMO has recorded 83 incidents and 23 deaths since 28 February. Brent futures rose 4.09% the same day back to 103.31 dollars.
Implication: Diplomatic news can pull the price down for a day, but because physical flow and security data have not changed, the reversal also comes in a day. What is decisive is not the meeting itself but the daily transit count leaving single digits; until that happens, below 100 dollars cannot be read as a lasting level.
Baird Maritime — Strait of Hormuz transits remain sluggish, hovering below 10-day averagegCaptain — Seafarer killed in Hormuz attack as Trump pushes Iran deal at UNKayhan — Rezaei: Hormuz will not reopen until Iran's conditions are metInvesting.com — Brent oil futures historical data
IIIConstraints matrix
Not what leaders want, but what financial, legal, geographic and systemic constraints force them to do. Preferences are cheap; constraints bind.
US · Fed and TreasuryUS
Constraint · The flash composite PMI rose to 58.4, with input costs rising at their fastest in four years; the 5-year auction cleared at 5.033%, and according to TFTC's calculation the annual interest cost of this single issue rose by about 448 million dollars. The 3 November elections are only days after the October meeting.
Behaviour it imposes · The Fed is continuing verbal tightening: Barr and Collins opened the door to further hikes, and 16 of 18 officials project at least one hike by year-end. The Treasury, meanwhile, is supporting the long end with a 6 billion dollar buyback in 20-30 year maturities.
Iran · Supreme National Security CouncilIR
Constraint · Under the US blockade, 3 commodity vessels transited the strait on 22 September; the 10-day average is about 15. Rival Saudi Arabia is reducing its dependence on Hormuz by restarting the East-West line.
Behaviour it imposes · It is lengthening its bargaining list: the number of conditions rose from 3 to 7 in a day and they were passed to mediators in writing, with the content not made public. By preserving ambiguity it wants the United States to move first.
China · Party and State CouncilCN
Constraint · The tariff truce ends on 10 November and the USTR does not expect an extension this week; in the US Congress 3 chip bills were attached to the 2027 defence act, and Nvidia's forecast assumes zero data centre sales to China.
Behaviour it imposes · It comes to the summit asking for an extended truce (1 year in one source, 6 months or more in another) and, according to anonymous sources, is offering pressure on Iran in exchange for a halt to Taiwan sales.
Russia · Kremlin and Defence MinistryRU
Constraint · According to the Kyiv Independent, 3 of the 6 largest diesel refineries cut or halted output in September because of Ukrainian strikes; new fires were reported in Ufa and Samara on the night of 23 September, and the Bashkortostan administration said there was no damage.
Behaviour it imposes · It is responding against energy and logistics targets: it sent 161 drones at Kyiv on the morning of 23 September, and the same night a cargo ship was hit in the Black Sea; 226 ships have been attacked in the Black Sea since the start of the war.
Saudi Arabia · Government and AramcoSA
Constraint · The OECD cut its 2026 growth forecast by 5 points to −1.8%; the East-West line restarted on 22 September after the 13 September drone attack but at low flow, and a return to the 4 million barrels a day target could take weeks.
Behaviour it imposes · It is diversifying outlets: while the line was shut it loaded 7 supertankers with a combined capacity of 14 million barrels at Gulf terminals at the same time, and is now bringing Yanbu back online. Aramco did not comment on the timetable.
Türkiye · CBRT, Treasury and Foreign MinistryTR
Constraint · According to market calculations, gross reserves fell by 13.9 billion dollars in 4 weeks to 174.5 billion dollars, 43.7 billion dollars below the January peak; USD/TRY is at 48.84 and the OECD's 2026 inflation forecast 31.5%. At least 26 attacks on Turkish-flagged or Turkish-owned vessels were recorded in the Black Sea in the past two months.
Behaviour it imposes · It is smoothing the currency with reserves and turning its military presence into a bargaining item: the gradual handover of Bashiqa was linked to Sinjar and the Development Road, and legal status with parliamentary approval is on the table in Syria; at the UN Erdoğan called ship attacks in the Black Sea unacceptable regardless of the perpetrator.
What the matrix says
What the matrix says: this week the tightest constraint is not geopolitics but interest rates. The US PMI of 58.4 and a 70% October hike probability took the dollar index above 101; this squeezes Türkiye's reserves, Mexico's peso and China's truce bargaining at the same time. Iran and Russia, meanwhile, are using the energy lever by curbing physical flows: 3 vessels, 226 attacks, 3 of 6 large diesel refineries. The two constraints feed each other: supply disruption pushes up prices, prices push up inflation, inflation pushes up rates. Türkiye stands at both ends of this chain: an energy importer and a dollar debtor.
Module A
Constraints Matrix
STRUCTURAL AVG 4.3 · TACTICAL AVG 2.8Structural constraints dominate: the outcome is set more by these limits than by the actors' preferences.
Hard structural constraintspersistent · beyond the actors' will
US inflation and rate path · United States
5/5The flash composite PMI is at 58.4, with input costs rising at their fastest in four years; the October hike probability is 70%, and 16 of 18 Fed officials project at least one more hike by year-end.
Hormuz conditions · Iran
5/5Iran has tied opening to 7 conditions and wants the United States to move first; 3 transits on 22 September, 10-day average about 15.
Reserves and the currency · Türkiye
4/5According to market calculations, CBRT gross reserves fell by 13.9 billion dollars in 4 weeks to 174.5 billion dollars; USD/TRY is at a record 48.84.
End of the tariff truce · China
3/5The US-China truce ends on 10 November; the USTR does not expect an extension this week, and the sides diverge on its length.
Tactical frictiontemporary · eases over time
East-West line flow weeks
3/5The line restarted on 22 September but at low flow; a return to the 4 million barrels a day target could take weeks.
Libyan guard blockade weeks
3/5The Zawiya refinery has stopped and 130,000 barrels a day are lost at Sharara; the guards want their allegiance transferred from the Defence Ministry to the NOC.
Russian diesel capacity weeks
3/5In September 3 of the 6 largest diesel refineries cut or halted output; new fires were reported in Ufa and Samara on 23 September.
Data inconsistency days
2/5Brent's 23 September close ranges from 101.09 to 103.31 dollars depending on the source, and Hormuz transits on 21 September from 2 to 4 vessels.
IVBeyond the Atlantic view: blind spots
Points that Western analysis overlooks, attributed by author and institution. State media is flagged every time.
- 1
From Brazil: record conflict, record armament and slowing trade on the road to the UN General Assembly
Laís Ramalho, Helena Psomopoulos, Maria Fernanda Ferreira, Julia Soares, Lucas Gribel, CEBRI (Rio de Janeiro) · 22 September 2026
Using Uppsala data, the note records 2025 as the most violent year since 1946: 65 state-based conflicts in 35 countries and 245,000 battle deaths. According to SIPRI data, the United States cut spending by 7.5% while the world excluding the United States increased it by 9.2%. The share of trade conducted at most-favoured-nation tariffs fell from about 83% in 2022 to about 72% in February 2026.
Note: The note is a data compilation; all figures are cited from secondary sources such as the UNFCCC, UCDP, SIPRI and the WTO, and it makes no policy proposals of its own.
cebri.org - 2
From Addis Ababa: is the "Alliance for Survival" Eritrea's proxy coalition?
Amanuel Tadesse, Horn Review (Addis Ababa) · 23 September 2026
Published on the day Tigrayan forces took Mekelle airport, the article reads the 7-organisation alliance declared on 20 September as a proxy coalition built by Eritrea. While in the West the crisis is seen as a failure to implement the Pretoria Agreement, the prevailing reading in Addis frames it as an interstate threat; this framing lays the groundwork for steps against Eritrea.
Note: Key evidence (the August 2026 Asmara consultations, the Gulo Mekeda meeting) is anonymous and unverified; the article aligns with the federal government's theses, and there is no Eritrean response.
hornreview.org - 3
From Seoul: China's slowdown is not a collapse but a change of growth regime
Jiyoung Moon, KIEP (Sejong) · 17 September 2026state media
In KIEP's baseline scenario China's average growth is about 4.6% in 2025-30 and about 2.8% in 2030-35. Growth peaked at 14.2% in 2007. According to the author, even at this pace a China piling capacity into advanced manufacturing means more competition for its neighbours; the chip and magnet bargaining on the eve of the summit should be read against this extended background.
Note: KIEP is a state-funded institute; the forecasts rest on a single baseline scenario and do not account for shocks such as overcapacity spilling into exports or Taiwan.
kiep.go.kr
VProbabilistic scenarios and asset-class implications
No firm forecasts are given. Percentages are calibrated judgement, not measurement. Competing explanations are set side by side.
H1High rates, partial supply
50%- Trigger
- The 7-year auction also comes in weak, the October hike probability stays around 70%; Hormuz transits stay in single digits and the East-West line keeps running at low flow.
- Impact
- US medium-term yields stay high and the dollar remains strong; Brent fluctuates above 100 dollars, and currency and reserve pressure persists in energy-importing economies.
- Market transmission
- Dollar index above 101, emerging market currencies and dollar-denominated sovereign debt under pressure; in Türkiye the currency and reserve channel works more than CDS.
H2A breathing space
30%- Trigger
- The 7-year auction clears healthily, a timetable for a truce extension is announced at the summit, and Hormuz transits rise above 10 for several consecutive days.
- Impact
- Part of the jump in the 5-year yield is given back, Brent approaches below 100 dollars; the October hike probability recedes.
- Market transmission
- Medium-term US yields and the dollar ease, pressure on emerging market currencies lightens; product margins may stay high because of disruptions outside Hormuz.
H3Double shock
20%- Trigger
- New ship attacks continue in Hormuz, Libya declares force majeure and the US 30-year yield passes 5.5%.
- Impact
- A supply shock and a term premium kick in at the same time; the Fed hike timetable is brought forward, and risk premiums widen across the board.
- Market transmission
- Oil, diesel and freight rise, long-dated yields and volatility increase; Türkiye's CDS tests the 250 basis point threshold, and currency pressure accelerates reserve losses.
Percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements.
Module C
Asset-Class and Positioning Implications
| Asset class | Exposure | Transmission channel | H1 | H2 | H3 | Expected | Conviction | Horizon | What to watch |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign debt | US medium-term yield curve | PMI and Fed rhetoric are pricing in an October hike; auction demand is weakening | − | + | −− | −0.60 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Indirect participation and tail at the 24 September 7-year auction |
| FX | Energy-importing emerging market currencies | A dollar index above 101 and oil above 100 dollars exert pressure in the same direction | − | + | −− | −0.60 | ●●● | 0–3 months | USD/TRY and CBRT weekly official reserve data |
| Commodities | Refined product and middle distillate margins | Disruptions in Libya, Russia and the Saudi line narrow spare capacity outside Hormuz | + | 0 | ++ | +0.90 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Sharara valve, Zawiya refinery and East-West line flow |
| Credit | Emerging market sovereign risk premiums | The premium has not yet widened as the base rate rises; the channel works through benchmark rates | 0 | + | −− | −0.10 | ●●● | 0–3 months | Türkiye 5-year CDS 250 basis point threshold |
| Freight & insurance | Gulf and Black Sea war-risk premium | The Cape Dao attack and 226 attacks in the Black Sea keep insurance costs high in two corridors | + | 0 | ++ | +0.90 | ●●● | 0–3 months | IMO incident count and daily Hormuz transits |
| Volatility | Global interest rate volatility | The auction calendar, the summit and PCE data generate new pricing at close intervals | + | − | ++ | +0.60 | ●●● | 0–3 months | 5.5% threshold on the US 30-year yield |
Annex 1Türkiye dashboard
IndicatorLatestReading
- Policy rate
- 37.00%
- Held at the September MPC; the rate differential narrows as the probability of a Fed hike in October rises to 70%.
- USD/TRY
- 48.84
- 23 September, a new peak above the 21 September record of 48.82.
- EUR/TRY
- 55.77
- 23 September morning selling rate; basket pressure is limited because the euro fell 0.3% against the dollar.
- CBRT gross reserves
- 174.5 bn $
- Week of 18 September, market estimate (not official); −13.9 bn $ in 4 weeks, 43.7 bn $ below the January peak.
- 5-year CDS
- 239.61 bps
- 22 September; down from 242.43 on 21 September, 10.39 basis points from the 250 threshold.
- 10-year yield
- 32.52%
- Flat on 22 and 23 September; the lira curve did not react while the US 10-year rose 13 basis points.
- Brent futures
- 103.31 $
- 23 September, +4.09% on the day; the dip below 100 dollars on 22 September reversed in a day.
- Brent (lira equivalent)
- ≈5,046 TL
- 23 September, 103.31 $ × 48.84; about 5% above ≈4,808 TL on 22 September.
- OECD 2026 growth
- 2.7%
- Cut from 3.1% in June; growth in the second quarter of 2026 was 2.3%.
- OECD 2026 inflation
- 31.5%
- +3.1 points vs June; 2027 forecast 24.7% (+6.4 points).
- Annual consumer inflation
- 31.51%
- August; September data due on 5 October. The OECD's full-year forecast matches this level.
- Black Sea ship attacks
- 226
- Since the start of the war, IMEAK; 163 in the first 8 months of 2026, at least 26 on Türkiye-linked ships in the past 2 months.
Annex 2 · Reading recommendation
The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest
Edward Chancellor · Atlantic Monthly Press (Grove Atlantic), 2022 · groveatlantic.com
Summary · Financial historian and columnist Chancellor traces about 5,000 years of lending practice to treat interest as the price of time: the fundamental variable that determines where capital goes, how assets are valued and how risk is priced. The book discusses the effect of interest rates falling to historic lows after the 2007-2008 crisis on asset bubbles, the productivity slowdown and inequality. According to the publisher, it won the 2023 Hayek Book Prize.
Why it matters · With the US 10-year yield at its highest since 2007 at 5.10%, it helps read how balance sheets left by the easy-money era are being repriced at high rates, that is, the historical background to the demand test seen at auctions today.
·Methodological transparency: what this issue does not know
Unverified items
- The results of the 24 September US 7-year auction and the Banxico decision were not available at the time of writing.
- The 174.5 billion dollar CBRT reserve figure and 13.9 billion dollar 4-week loss are market calculations; official data will be released on 24 September, and net reserves and net reserves excluding swaps could not be verified.
- The content of Iran's 7 conditions was not disclosed; whether the 3 conditions are a subset of the 7 could not be verified.
- The perpetrator of the Cape Dao attack was not identified; nobody claimed the attack.
- That Tigrayan forces also control the Axum and Shire airports could not be independently verified.
- The capacity impact of the 23 September attacks in Ufa and Samara could not be independently verified.
- The current flow on the East-West line and when Yanbu volumes will return to former levels could not be verified.
- The results of the Xi-Trump summit were not available at the time of writing; China's offer of pressure on Iran in exchange for Taiwan rests on anonymous sources.
Conflicting sources (both reported)
- The 23 September Brent futures close was 103.31 dollars according to Investing.com and 102.92 according to TradingEconomics; Reuters reported about 101.09 dollars intraday. For 22 September Investing.com gives 99.25 and TradingEconomics 98.50 dollars; the 4.09% daily change is from the Investing.com series.
- The size of the US 5-year auction was 70 billion dollars according to investinglive and TFTC, and 80 billion according to Wolf Street.
- Hormuz transits for 21 September were 2 in Talay's previous entry based on Kpler, and 4 vessels in Reuters' 23 September report; the difference may stem from revisions to preliminary counts.
- The German 10-year yield for 23 September was above 3.50% according to Newsquawk and 3.46% according to ideal-investisseur.
- The number injured in the Kyiv attack was at least 43 according to the Kyiv Independent and 23 according to Euronews.
- China's truce extension demand was 1 year in Seoul Economic Daily's 24 September report, and 6 months or more in its 23 September report.
Stale data warning
- There is no 23 September close for Türkiye's 5-year CDS; the latest value is from 22 September.
- The latest value for US and Saudi 5-year CDS is from 21 September.
- The last observation of FRED's Brent spot series is from 15 September (130.80 dollars); the series is published with a lag of several days.
- Annual consumer inflation is August 2026 data; the CBRT reserve calculation refers to the week of 18 September.
Scenario percentages are calibrated judgements, not measurements. State media sources are flagged separately. This issue is for information only and is not investment advice. Production process and rules: methodology · source universe · Track record
Principal sources
- investinglive — US treasury sells $70 billion of 5 year notes at a high yield of 5.033%
- Wolf Street — Bond Bloodbath: 10-Year Treasury Yield Spikes 13 Basis Points to 5.10% after Hot PMIs
- PYMNTS — S&P Global Data Shows Fastest US Business Growth Since Post-COVID Reopening
- Deutsche Finanzagentur — Bobl auction result, 22 September 2026
- Kayhan — Rezaei: Hormuz will not reopen until Iran's conditions are met
- gCaptain — Seafarer killed in Hormuz attack as Trump pushes Iran deal at UN
- Investing.com — Brent oil futures historical data
- CNBC-e — CBRT gross reserves calculated to have fallen for 4 weeks
- PBS News — China's Xi kicks off state visit to Washington with a rare planeside welcome from Trump
- U.S. Treasury — Tentative auction schedule
- U.S. Census Bureau — Economic indicator calendar