MediumIII Kinetic Conflicts & Defence27 October 2026, Tuesday

Renewed fighting near Bab el-Mandeb leaves 97 combatants dead

At least 63 Houthi and 34 pro-government fighters were killed in clashes that ran until 27 October, according to military sources on both sides speaking to AFP. The Houthis say they repelled an advance, while government sources say they are gaining ground; neither claim has been independently verified.

Location: BAB EL-MANDEB

According to the AFP report carried by The New Arab, the fighting began with air strikes on the night of 26 October, and most of the deaths occurred around the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. The report calls it the fiercest fighting since the Houthis' surprise offensive in September seized large areas from the government. The government had launched a counter-offensive with Saudi air support in early October, which appeared to have stalled by 27 October. CBS also attributed the toll of 97 and the 63-34 split to the same military sources.

The two sides' accounts do not match. Houthi spokesman Yahya Saree wrote on X on 27 October that his forces had repelled a Saudi advance from the south, inflicting many dead and wounded. Houthi military sources say Saudi Arabia struck Mayun Island in the middle of the strait, as well as Dhubab and Mocha, with dozens of air strikes on 26-27 October. Government military sources said heavy fighting continued around the strait and that they had advanced on land. As of 27 October there was no verified information that Mayun had changed hands.

The front heated up in step with October's attacks on Saudi Arabia. The New Arab says the Houthis carried out strikes that closed Riyadh airport for two weeks and declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia. Egypt's parliament authorised defensive military support for Saudi Arabia on 26 October. An AFP report carried by the Times of Israel on 10 October said fighting around the strait had killed at least 63 people in 24 hours that day. The two sides' figures could not be verified then either.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The land war on the Bab el-Mandeb coast will decide who holds the southern gate of the Red Sea. Despite 97 dead, both sides claim progress, and the status of Mayun Island remains unverified. The most likely path is a front that stays locked along the strait's coastline for several more weeks.

Likely effects

Red Sea transitsNegative1–6 months
While fighting continues on the coast, shipowners will put off returning to Bab el-Mandeb, and the timetable for a full return to Suez slips further.
Saudi securityNegativeWeeks
Under pressure on the ground, the Houthis tend to step up missile and drone attacks on Saudi cities and energy sites. Ras Tanura was named as a target on 27 October.
TürkiyeUncertain1–6 months
As a member of the Mecca pact, Türkiye may face pressure to be drawn into the Yemen front after Egypt's troop authorisation; Ankara has announced no military step so far.

Possibilities, ranked

1
The front stays locked55%
Fighting continues on the strait's coast and both sides claim gains, but Mayun does not change hands.
Watch: Independent verification of control over Mayun Island and AFP casualty counts
2
Government takes the coast30%
With Saudi air support, the government secures Dhubab and Mayun, and the Houthis intensify attacks on Saudi territory.
Watch: A government announcement of a landing on Mayun and a rise in Houthi missile launches
3
Houthi counter-offensive15%
The Houthis push back government lines and consolidate their hold on both shores of the strait.
Watch: New Houthi territorial gains towards Lahij

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Combatants killed (AFP)▼ 97
Houthi losses▼ 63
Strait coastline▼ fighting

Historical context