MediumI Geo-Economics & Chokepoints2 October 2026, Friday

OPEC+ core group set to hold November quotas steady on Sunday

The seven core members of OPEC+ will not change November quotas at their online meeting on 4 October, according to Reuters and Bloomberg reports citing delegates. In August the group produced roughly 5 million barrels a day less than before the war.

Location: RIYADH

Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria and Oman will attend the meeting. According to The National, the UAE left the group in May 2026, and on 6 September the group kept October quotas at September levels. A Reuters report cited by Oilprice on 30 September said the unwinding of the 1.65 million barrel-a-day cut introduced in 2023 was completed in September. A Reuters report cited by Investing says an additional cut of about 2 million barrels, running to the end of 2026, remains in force.

The quotas exist largely on paper. According to Reuters, the core producers pumped 25.0 million barrels a day in August. That was 630,000 barrels more than in July, but roughly 5 million barrels less than in February. In a Bloomberg report cited by Investinglive, an analyst said the group's power over the physical market is currently very limited. The group is awaiting a capacity review by DeGolyer and MacNaughton to set its 2027 baseline quotas.

Prices, meanwhile, are tracking war news more than quotas. According to The National, Brent fell 2.89% to $99.35 on 2 October on reports of stock releases, while WTI fell about 4% to $89.35. The same report said Saudi shipments through the Strait of Hormuz rose from about 1 million barrels a day in August to 2.9 million barrels a day in September. Investinglive put regional exports at about 16 million barrels a day in September. Kpler data cited by Oilprice show Middle East crude exports at 12.8 million barrels a day. The two figures may be measured on different bases, and the discrepancy could not be resolved.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

The 4 October decision will add no new barrels to the market, because the group is already producing about 5 million barrels a day below its quota. The decision that really matters for OPEC+ will be the 2027 baseline quotas, which depend on the capacity review. In the near term, prices are set not by OPEC+ but by Hormuz transits and the G7 stock release.

Likely effects

Oil priceUncertainWeeks
With quotas expected to stay unchanged, the 4 October decision should have limited price impact. The 2.89% fall on 2 October was driven by news of a stock release.
Balance within the groupNegative1–6 months
The capacity review will set 2027 quotas. Bargaining over the base year could harden between Russia and the Gulf members producing 5 million barrels a day less because of the war.
Türkiye's energy billNegative1–6 months
Brent's fall to $99.35 on 2 October offers relief, but not lasting relief. The supply gap will close through Gulf exports rather than quotas, so the import bill stays tied to war news.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Quotas unchanged, message points to 202770%
The group leaves November quotas unchanged, and its statement highlights the capacity review and the 2027 baseline quotas.
Watch: The 4 October OPEC+ statement and the date of the next meeting
2
Symbolic increase20%
The group responds to US price pressure with a quota increase of little physical effect.
Watch: A new increase figure for November, in barrels a day, in the statement
3
Quota cut10%
The group cuts quotas to try to build a price floor against the fall driven by stock releases.
Watch: Brent dropping below $95 before 4 October and delegates signalling a cut

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Brent (2 October)▼ $99.35
Core seven August output▲ 25.0m b/d
Output shortfall vs February▼ ≈5m b/d

Historical context