Hormuz attacks concentrate on the US-protected southern route

U.S. frigate USS Taylor sailing past a tanker after transiting the Strait of Hormuz — A frigate and a tanker after transiting the Strait of Hormuz, 1 April 1992 (archive photo, illustrative)Photo: U.S. Department of Defense / National Archives · Public domain · Source

Location: HORMUZ

UK Maritime Trade Operations (UKMTO), the Royal Navy centre to which merchant ships in the region report incidents, said a tanker was hit at 17:15 GMT on 22 October. According to Arab Times, the outbound tanker was struck by an unknown projectile 7 nautical miles north-east of Limah. The report came late, via the company security officer. The name of the 1 tanker, the damage and any casualties were not disclosed.

A UKMTO summary cited by The Maritime Executive shows that 57 of the 79 projectile attacks recorded since July struck ships using the southern route. Since the start of the year 119 vessels have reported damage, and 77 crew have been injured or killed. Over the past 7 days 114 ships left the strait and 127 entered; UKMTO puts the daily average at 25 to 35 ships.

The attack map tracks the fight over routes. CBS reports that Iranian state television (state media) announced on 23 October that non-compliant ships had stopped transiting. It warned of tougher steps if US escorts continue. Tehran is directing ships to the northern route along its own coast, while Washington defends the southern route on the Omani side. Reuters columnist Ron Bousso says about 1 in 3 transits still uses the Iranian-controlled northern route.

Talay assessment

Bottom line

Iran is trying to make the US-protected southern route costly and risky, pushing ships onto the northern route it controls; UKMTO counting 57 of 79 attacks in the south shows as much. Some 241 transits a week say flows continue, but every transit is now a choice of route. The likeliest path is continued attacks concentrated in the south and a slow rise in the northern route's share.

Likely effects

Freight and insuranceNegativeWeeks
With 57 hits on the southern route, insurers have grounds to price by route; the cost of US escorts is being passed on to shipowners.
Strait capacityNegativeWeeks
Daily transits of 25 to 35 are below pre-war levels, and late reporting suggests the real number of attacks may be higher.
TürkiyeNegative1–6 months
Route risk on Gulf crude and product cargoes feeds through freight into Türkiye's energy import bill.

Possibilities, ranked

1
Southern attacks continue55%
Strikes continue on the Omani side at a pace of a few incidents a week, and transits stay within the current band.
Watch: Southern-route hit count in UKMTO's weekly summary
2
Northern route gains share30%
Shipowners accept Iran's terms and shift north, reducing demand for escorts on the southern route.
Watch: Northern route's share of transits rising above 1 in 3
3
Attacks become rarer15%
Mediation advances, no new hits are reported on the southern route and daily transits rise.
Watch: UKMTO reporting no new projectile incidents for two consecutive weeks

Probabilities are calibrated judgement based on the sources, not measurement, and are revised as new information arrives. Not investment advice.

Market reaction

Indicators affected

Outbound in 7 days (UKMTO)▼ 114
Attacks on southern route▲ 57 / 79
Ships reporting damage in 2026▲ 119

Historical context